The incoming government will have to cut spending or take theself-defeating option of raising taxes, writes Peter White
On February 20th I wrote in The Irish Times that it was shameful that no political party was leading the public to face the truth about the nation's finances as public spending rocketed out of control.
"There is nothing socially just about robbing tomorrow's taxpayer. This madness continues from the Government and is encouraged by the Opposition.
"It is a matter of certainty that a sharp shock is around the corner. The whole political system has lost touch with reality. There are deep differences in Irish politics, but these are no longer to be found between the two largest parties.
"Because they are artificially pitted against each other, they are paralysed, using their political skills to prevent things happening. Against this political wasteland, many locally focused independent candidates will fill the gap and be elected."
The deep differences found new expression as this election reflected a sharply divided society.
Those many people who could feel increased prosperity in their pockets voted for no change. As they came home from work in the new car to looked through holiday brochures, they were not overly concerned by abstract messages about their quality of life.
The Opposition effectively conspired with the Government parties over the last six months to disguise the sheer horror of our finances. The warm feeling that all was well was never really dissipated. While Fine Gael did make an attempt in the last five days of the campaign to alert the public to the mismanagement of the economy, this was far too late to make any impact.
The state of the nation's finances was not something that "emerged" midway through the campaign. With the publication of year-end figures from the Department of Finance in January, the Opposition had the necessary months to try to unite the country in fury at what had been squandered and how this would further paralyse health and other public services.
And then there is the other Ireland. This is the struggling mother who cannot get any real assistance for her handicapped child.
This is the young couple who see the prospect of buying a house move further and further out of their reach. This is not even the really marginalised and dispossessed who are too far from the table to bother voting. It is those hundreds of thousands of people who are just trying to cope. Neither of the main opposition parties reflected the hurt and anger they feel.
So where do we go from here? Well, for a start, we should just put "party" on the back burner for a few moments and look at country. It is a particular irony that a generation of politicians who did more than anyone to put country before party lost their seats on Friday.
Under what became known as the Tallaght Strategy in September 1987 Alan Dukes led his 51 Fine Gael TDs to underpin the macro-economic policy of the minority Fianna Fáil government as it reined in the public finances. It remains a mystery to me as to why so many political commentators believe that the "political thing to do" is somehow different from the "right thing to do".
History will show that every time an Irish political party over the last two decades has faced the nation's finances squarely it has gone up in public estimation.
In the 1989 election Fine Gael was rewarded for its courageous stand, while the PDs, who took too much political rope, were more than halved.
So what is the sharp shock that awaits us? Well, in the old days of the 1980s it was possible to go for the easy option of bankrupting the country with increased borrowing. Our deeper integration into the European Union renders this choice more difficult for even the most imaginative Irish government.
It is therefore a matter of certainty that a combination of two unpleasant options is heading down the tracks to us. The new government will either show the resolve to curtail public spending and keep us on a positive path of low taxation, or it will take the easier and ultimately self-defeating option of raising taxes.
The middle classes will hit reality with a bang as, one way or another, money is removed from their wallets. Those who are trying cope will hear new reasons why they cannot be helped. Those who voted for hospital candidates will not see their wishes materialise. The marginalised will remain marginalised.
There is a yawning gap opening up for political forces that will stand on two rock-solid realities. First, Ireland must earn money in the international free market if it is not to sink back to being the poor man of Europe; trust the people by being straight about the financial choices facing us. Second, it is just not tenable to close our ears to the anger of those who have been excluded.
Old-style thinking would oppose fiscal responsibility to social justice. Wrong. They mutually reinforce each other.
Given that what will happen over the next year or so will be so out of sync with what people voted for, there is likely to be a period of some considerable untidiness. This may be accentuated by other lurking icebergs out there in the night, not all of them strictly economic.
In the words of singer/songwriter David Gray:
We are listening to the sirens, coming closer, now further away
What we going to do when the money runs out,
Wish that there was something left to say.
Where we going to find the eyes to see the bright of day.
Sooner than many of us now imagine, there will be compelling reasons to have a reshaping of Irish politics more radical than anything we saw this weekend. Those people of competence and integrity on both sides of the new Dáil, and maybe some of those who disappeared on Friday, may have little option but to come together in very new ways.
Correction: In an earlier edition The Irish Times inserted the words "made a deal with Charlie Haughey" in the paragraph beginning 'Under what became known as the 'Tallaght Strategy'...without the permission of the author. Mr White has asked us to point out that "there was no deal between Alan Dukes and Charles Haughey. In September 1987, Fine Gael took a unilateral action to protect the public finances for which no party trade off was sought. It was truly courageous and left a lasting impression on Ireland's economic and social future."
Peter White runs a public affairs consultancy. He was press secretary to Fine Gael from 1984 to 1993