Bertie Ahern's relief at the adjournment of the Mahon tribunal may be short-lived, suggests Stephen Collins
The Taoiseach's decision to call the election just a day before the Mahon tribunal was due to reveal details of his personal financial arrangements has coloured the opening of the campaign. However, the postponement of the tribunal hearings until the end of the month could now have a huge influence on political events after the election on May 24th.
There was no great surprise in the political world at the decision of the tribunal not to proceed yesterday. While it had announced its intention of running until two weeks before the election date, most senior politicians did not believe that it would proceed to air details of the Taoiseach's finances during the campaign.
What really did cause surprise was the decision of the Taoiseach to leave the dissolution of the Dáil right up to the day before the tribunal hearings were supposed to begin. If he had called the election last Thursday, or even gone for an election on May 17th by dissolving a week earlier, the issue would probably not have impinged on the election at all.
As it is, the first two days of the Fianna Fáil campaign have been overshadowed by media reports that the tribunal was about to reveal previously unknown details of Ahern's bizarre finances during the period when he was minister for finance in 1993 and 1994. Some of those details have come into the public domain through the media. That has fuelled speculation that Ahern's early-morning visit to Áras an Uachtaráin on Sunday was designed to prevent the tribunal going ahead.
The leaders of the main Opposition parties have remained aloof from the debate swirling around Ahern's finances. It appears to be a case of once bitten, twice shy, and both Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte are acutely conscious of how the controversy last October over payments to Ahern damaged them rather than him. While it is arguable that their tactic of appearing to be willing to wound but afraid to strike was actually at the root of their troubles, this time around they have made it clear that they want to stay well away from the issue.
Even if the Opposition stepped back from the matter, out of self-interest, it was certainly not the ideal way for the Fianna Fáil election campaign to begin. With the media still intent on pursuing the matter, the party will have difficulty in trying to get the focus of debate on to its claims that the alternative government lacks credibility. Fianna Fáil is making a special effort to target Fine Gael by hammering away at Enda Kenny's relatively limited experience of high office and trying to discredit his party's election pledges.
There is a clear political logic in this. The only way that Fianna Fáil will lose office is if Fine Gael does very well. Over the past few years much of the political speculation about the election was not about a change of government but about who Fianna Fáil's coalition partner would be next time around. The revitalisation of Fine Gael under Kenny and the strong alliance forged with Labour has finally put the focus on to the alternative coalitions available to the electorate at the start of the campaign.
If Fine Gael can keep up the momentum gained in recent months, and if Labour can build some extra support during the campaign, then a change of government will come about. However, if Fianna Fáil can regain the initiative and dent the credibility of a Fine Gael-led coalition, then an alternative government would become impossible.
However, that is where the tribunal comes back into the picture as a hugely important factor in a post-election scenario. If it transpires that only Fianna Fáil could lead a coalition in partnership with Labour, the Greens or Sinn Féin, then the resumed tribunal hearings into Ahern's finances on May 28th could be of critical importance.
If there was a hung Dáil, Labour leader Pat Rabbitte would be under enormous pressure to drop his hostility to a coalition with Fianna Fáil. However, if the Mahon tribunal throws up further questions about Mr Ahern's finances, the pressure would be off Mr Rabbitte. Since Labour would have great difficulty going into coalition in the circumstances, Rabbitte would retain the initiative within his party.
In any case, a decision to go into coalition would have to be approved by a Labour delegate conference and, given the latest disclosures, a conference would be highly unlikely to countenance such a deal.
The same arguments apply to the Greens, even though the party has kept the option of a deal with Fianna Fáil wide open. The party leadership would have to bring any coalition proposal to a conference for approval and, no matter how much green policy Fianna Fáil might decide to take on board, selling a deal to a conference would be very difficult.
In the unlikely event of Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats securing the numbers to form another coalition, there could be obstacles. While Michael McDowell knew last October about the money given to Celia Larkin, it may be difficult for him to agree to another coalition if there are further revelations at the tribunal about which he had not been informed.
The upshot is that, whatever happens in the election, Fianna Fáil is going to find it much more difficult than anybody imagined, even a few months ago, to get back into power.
The PDs are probably the only party which would be willing to do a deal with Ahern and that would not be easy for a party which laid such stress on standards in public life. Fianna Fáil will need to hold almost all its current seats to retain power and that will not be easily achieved.