Tribunals have spawned a rush-to-judgment ethic

Drapier has long said that tribunals, once established, take on a life of their own, and this week it is not just Moriarty, but…

Drapier has long said that tribunals, once established, take on a life of their own, and this week it is not just Moriarty, but Flood and Lindsay, who went their own way in path-breaking directions.

The tribunals have been with us so long now it is hard to think of a time when they did not exist. In fact, a whole new tribunal industry has been spawned, with an army of pundits, actors, analysts, commentators, PR people, not to mention the legion of lawyers all making a good living, in some cases a very good living, out of the whole exercise.

One of the strangest aspects of it all as far as Drapier is concerned is the rush-to-judgment culture it has spawned. The statements on Tuesday of Mr Healy and Mr Coughlan at Moriarty provoked a spate of judgmental observations and even an editorial or two, even though not a single witness had yet been called or any evidence heard.

Drapier wishes he could be as certain about anything as some of the pundits are about everything, and he bears in mind the words of Mr Justice Moriarty about hearing all the evidence before coming to conclusions.

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Be that as it may, Drapier does not expect the coverage of the tribunals to change. It is much too good a story, or rather series of stories, for that, but he does caution that at the end of the day it will be the sole members who will have the final and only say. But as things stand, we are a long way off any signs of conclusions.

Indeed as things stand we can look forward to a summer of Michael Lowry, Frank Dunlop, Tom Gilmartin, Padraig Flynn, Liam Lawlor and maybe a few others, not to mention Ray Burke who seems as if he will always be with us.

The shock effects on the public have largely worn off, but the long-term damage and the drip-drip effects on public confidence are difficult to estimate. Drapier still believes the voters can differentiate between the majority of honest politicians and the dodgy ones, but one way or other we do not deserve to be forgiven if this Dail ends without all of the promised reform legislation finding its way on to the statute book.

Meanwhile, Stadium Ireland is hotting up. It is highly significant that it was Paddy Teahon, rather than Jim McDaid, who was put out to bat this week in defence of the project.

Paddy Teahon is not normally one who courts the limelight. For those who have never heard of him, he is the highly respected former secretary to the Government, a civil servant respected by all parties for his work, especially on Northern Ireland and on social partnership.

Now, however, he is no longer a civil servant. He is head of the project team put in place to make a reality of Stadium Ireland and he is also part of Laura Magahy's team which will be heavily rewarded if the project is realised. So in a real sense he is no longer the objective civil servant, but a key player with a significant vested interest in the success of the project.

Paddy Teahon appeared on Tuesday's Morning Ireland, and later on the Last Word, and finally on Prime Time. It was for the most part the cool, patient, all-angles-covered performance one would expect of a mandarin.

But it was also threadbare in patches. The M50, we are told, will not be congested because Dublin Bus will provide shuttle services and the metro will be in operation. It is strange that Dublin Bus has a very different read on this.

Then we are told the State laboratories would have had to be moved, Campus Ireland or not. Drapier understands differently: they needed to be updated at a cost of £10 million to £20 million, but not moved at a cost of £200 million. Private-sector involvement in the aquatic centre - an involvement which doesn't exist and may not ever - was glossed over.

These were just some of the first questions to come to mind. But then Drapier stopped himself. What is the point? From the tone of Paddy Teahon's interviews, from the timescale he outlined and from his sense of bafflement that any consultant would dare differ with his self-evidently correct projections, it is clear to Drapier that we are looking at a done deal.

There is no question of a serious rethink or reappraisal. The PDs have been fobbed off once again: the juggernaut is on the road and won't be stopped. Anybody who thinks otherwise is merely fooling themselves.

All of which is a great pity. There is much that is worthwhile in the proposal and much that could be salvaged. But there is no question now of a calm and rational debate. From Bertie Ahern's point of view it's all or nothing, and if it is going to be "all", then events must move rapidly, otherwise they run the risk of being bogged down by the fast-approaching election.

Paddy Teahon's intervention let that cat out of the bag during the week, and once the Dail rises in July expect events to move rapidly, and probably irreversibly. If we come back in the autumn we will be looking at a fait accompli. Drapier has no doubt whatsoever on that score.

Drapier is a good judge of mood, and the mood in Leinster House has been distinctly jittery of late. Put it down, if you like, to the nervousness which always precedes an election, even if Drapier is still convinced that that particular event is the best part of a year away. There is also an unprecedented air of uncertainty and lack of confidence all round.

In Fianna Fail's case all in the garden should be rosy. But, if it was, we would already be into an election campaign. The sharper minds in Fianna Fail welcome the opinion polls but don't much believe them. Their own constituency polls show as many problems as pluses, the tribunals and other legal adventures have done damage, not a single by-election has been won, inflation remains persistently high and the huge infrastruc ural problems all add to the uncertainty.

Drapier knows of no one in Fianna Fail calling for a quick run to the country, and that tells its own story.

For Fine Gael the long shadow of Michael Lowry grows longer and darker. The one big asset the party had, its probity, is no longer a marketable asset. So far, Michael Noonan has had little luck, and little enough time remains to make an impact. The party's candidate black spots for the most part remain.

Labour is arguably in even worse shape. There is no sign of any electoral breakthrough and increasing competition on the ground from Sinn Fein. There is no sense of the party spoiling for an election contest. On the contrary. The simple fact is that nobody can really read the public mood. Expect things to get even more jittery.

Breda O'Brien is on leave