Trimble determined to fight to the bitter end in gruelling campaign

Nearly there and David Trimble is still somehow maintaining his energy levels

Nearly there and David Trimble is still somehow maintaining his energy levels. It's been a gruelling and, within the Yes and No brands of unionism, a bitter and merciless campaign.

Yesterday he was delivering his variation of Yeats's line, "the best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity". He was in the new Odyssey Centre in Belfast effectively warning that the extremes would gain and the centre might not hold if moderate unionists did not go to the polls the day after tomorrow.

Picking the Odyssey to deliver his speech was no accident. He believes the modernistic centre is symbolic of new unionism and the fledgling dispensation. He is attempting to portray the UUP as the progressive party, the DUP as the rejectionists, to borrow a phrase of the Sinn Fein leader.

But in this Irish Times interview we are in his tiny office at party HQ in Glengall Street. And how to fathom the mindset of the great unionist population out there is still the unanswerable question. It's a nervous time.

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And not only for Mr Trimble but also for the British and Irish governments and others of the Yes camp who feel the best chance of safeguarding the Belfast Agreement is safeguarding Mr Trimble's leadership.

The undecided voters could swing a number of marginals. That's why the contest will remain fierce up until the polls close on Thursday night.

The DUP attack has focused on the First Minister. We'll know soon enough whether that was the correct No tactic. Mr Trimble has been caricatured as Pinocchio, as a leader unionists can't trust.

Mr Trimble laughs. "The Pinocchio thing was really hilarious. You must remember that Pinocchio goes through all sorts of trials and tribulations in the story but if I remember rightly it has a happy ending.

"There will be no meltdown in the Ulster Unionist position," he adds emphatically. "I have said this before, that the pundits will be proved wrong, that the elections will be better for us than they thought. And that is the message that is coming through."

He will concede that "there are a number of seats where it is difficult to see how the results will turn out".

Mr Trimble has been no soft touch in this campaign. If he does go down it won't be for the want of waging a combative and concentrated campaign. Every DUP broadside has been resisted with aggressive counter-assaults.

But the Ulster Unionist leader is still vulnerable. The prospects of the post-election negotiations being successful may depend on Mr Trimble remaining as party leader, and on him being able to demonstrate credibly that his is the main voice of unionism.

To do that Lady Sylvia Hermon must win North Down. A great bonus would be Mr David Burnside regaining South Antrim from the Rev William McCrea of the DUP, but that will be difficult.

THE Rev Ian Paisley's party has targeted North Belfast, East Derry, Strang ford, East Antrim and even Mr Trimble's Upper Bann constituency. The DUP has a fighting chance of winning three of these seats. Nervous times indeed for the UUP.

What happens in West Tyrone, where Mr William Thompson is the outgoing UUP MP, is in a sense is out of his hands because of the overwhelming nationalist majority there.

Mr Trimble can afford to lose some council seats, but not too many. In short, if he can limit DUP successes then he may at the least be able to declare an honourable draw.

That's why he doesn't dwell on the UUP versus DUP tussle. Getting the vote out. That's what's preoccupying his thoughts. If the formerly apathetic people who came out for the referendum come out this time then he could upset the DUP predictions about his imminent political demise.

There's a lot of them out there, the so-called "middle class Prods" who have done well out of peace, who voted for the agreement, but went back into their shells afterwards and let Mr Trimble down in the Assembly elections in 1998.

He feels they have a disdain for politics because of the antics of the DUP and the attitude of republicans. Mr Trimble has heard republican talk of "greening" Northern Ireland and predictions that the demographics are in favour of nationalists.

That sort of comment proves that they are "simply sectarian", he says.

Mr Trimble said republicans were unaware of the "depths they plumbed" in the past 30 years. "They didn't even have the moral scruples that the IRA, for example, demonstrated in the campaign of 1956 to '62. The nature of that campaign was designed by the then IRA leadership to minimise the opportunity for sectarian conflict. The republican campaign throughout has been one of trying to generate more."

Sinn Fein in turn has accused unionists of refusing to admit to past wrongs against nationalists. Mr Trimble won't go beyond his Nobel Prize speech line that Northern Ireland was perforce a "cold house" for Catholics.

He says the best way for all disaffected unionists to counter Sinn Fein and DUP politics is to vote for the UUP. Equally, he would welcome support from Catholics and Alliance people in the marginals. "I think there's going to be more tactical voting this time."

After the elections, he is certain a deal will be done, but when he doesn't know. "We are going to have a bit of difficulty in getting things sorted out. But if you are asking me do I think they eventually will be sorted, well, yes, I think they will. But I am not too optimistic about the timescale."

Implicit in that is the inevitability of his resigning as First Minister on July 1st - although not as UUP leader, he stresses. But even if he does resign, he says he expects to be re-elected within the subsequent six weeks.

He says that the executive could continue during any interregnum and that devolution should not be grievously undermined. But if the IRA does not move on arms then a further review of the agreement would be likely. It's all down to what happens in the negotiations.

It's dangerous politics but most people understand its purpose. Mr Trimble wrong-footed the DUP with his resignation deadline, but could republicans do the same now, by allowing him resign and possibly lose the UUP leadership as well, and then take their chances with whoever replaced him, whether that be Sir Reg Empey or Mr Peter Robinson? And in the meantime unionism would be further fractured.

He sidesteps the question. That's not the point, is his line. "It would be utterly wrong to allow anybody, any political faction, to think they can go forward into the new dispensation with their own little private army intact, ready for use or threatened use."

AFTER the elections the goal is to achieve a deal on policing, demilitarisation and IRA arms that will shunt politics, devolution and the agreement back on track and additionally preclude any necessity for his resignation. Forging a deal will involve persuading the IRA to put its arms verifiably beyond use.

Mr Trimble has very harsh words for Sinn Fein and the IRA, as well as the DUP. But in this tense pre-election period he is not concerned about republican sensitivities, he is concerned about unionist sensitivities.

It is perceived wisdom - which Mr Trimble disputes - that the IRA does not respond to ultimatums but, if there is to be any moderation of the First Minister's language about republicans, it won't happen until after Thursday.

At least he appears flexible on how weapons might be put beyond use. "There is lots of scope for creativity," he says. But that's for after the election.