Trimble is sure of deal as unionists meet in a jollier mood

David Trimble is beginning to look like a prime minister-in-waiting

David Trimble is beginning to look like a prime minister-in-waiting. More important, he has started to sound like a unionist leader who wants to create a lasting peace with his nationalist fellow citizens.

At his party's annual conference in Newcastle last weekend, Mr Trimble made a brave and welljudged speech. He sought, naturally enough, to address the deep anxiety which many of his own supporters feel, not only about the talks at Stormont, but about the whole peace process. That very morning the Belfast Newsletter, which has endorsed the UUP's decision to attend the talks, had published the results of a telephone poll showing that an overwhelming majority of its readers supported the strategy of other unionist leaders in boycotting the process.

What was clear at last weekend's conference is that David Trimble had made up his mind on a number of issues and was ready to spell out the political realities facing his supporters. These could be summed up in the Thatcherite exhortation "there is no alternative" to the path of negotiation. The Rev Ian Paisley and Bob McCartney may have chosen the familiar tactic of staging rallies and hymns across the province to save Ulster. That worked in the past but won't do so this time. Tony Blair is determined on a settlement. Unionists will fight their corner but must do so in the political space provided.

Mr Trimble told his audience that he and his colleagues had been elected by the broad unionist community "because they wanted us to negotiate a democratic settlement with constitutional nationalists". He then explained, in some detail, what is happening in the talks, who is representing the UUP in the various strands and so on.

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The most interesting - and encouraging - parts of the speech were those where Mr Trimble emphasised that the problems of Northern Ireland will not be solved by political structures alone, important though these undoubtedly are. The building of peace will require the co-operation of both communities, a fact which must not be forgotten by the Secretary of State or anyone else.

On the contentious legislation on parades, which has angered many unionists, Mr Trimble reminded all of us that a serious crisis was averted this year, not by legislation but by the common sense of people within the Orange Order. It is a reasonable point that the concept of parity of esteem must be seen to be fair to both communities, otherwise it will simply become another cause of grievance.

But the UUP leader also recognised, when talking about the thorny issue of relationships between Dublin and Belfast, that there is a serious need to meet the demand of northern nationalists for "something that validates their sense of identity". Mr Trimble sees this as a "question of this feeling that they have", not perhaps the most profound analysis of the conflict of national allegiances that has caused so much suffering in Northern Ireland.

Nonetheless, he has gone much further than any previous unionist leader in appealing to nationalists to "tell us, in realistic terms what would meet their needs" and in committing himself to "try sympathetically to meet them".

I don't want to give a unduly optimistic impression of last Saturday's conference. Much of what Mr Trimble had to say focused on the old grievances - the imperial designs of this State on Northern Ireland, the imposed "diktat" of the Anglo-Irish Agreement, the treachery of both governments in not standing firm on decommissioning, etc. But overall, in his speech and his personal demeanour, he seemed to be looking forward, quite confidently, to cutting a reasonable deal with Irish nationalism.

This was evident in the mood of the conference, which was a much jollier affair than usual. For a start, there were, as David Trimble proudly remarked, quite a few young people. The atmosphere of dour suspicion towards outsiders which has often hung gloomily over these gatherings was gone. Perhaps it was the easy hospitality of the Slieve Donard Hotel and the sea breezes blowing in across the Co Down coast, but people were relaxed and eager to discuss, quite jokily, recent events in the political life of the Republic.

Last week, Frederik Van Zyle Slabbert, a former leader of the Progressive Federal Party in South Africa, spoke in Dublin about the peace process in his country and what lessons it might have for us. He said that there was always far too much talk about the importance of "trust" in these situations. Adversaries do not trust one another. That is why they have to negotiate.

Looking back now at the South African experience, he believes that the key moment which brings people to the point of serious negotiations is when they accept that their conflict is unresolvable by any other means. If they refuse to negotiate things will only get worse. This common perception of deadlock seems to be critical, he argued, if there is to be any realistic prospect of success.

Many of us have dared to hope that the republican movement, under the leadership of Gerry Adams and his closest colleagues, has already accepted that there can be no victory for either side in Northern Ireland and that the terrible problems of a divided society can only be resolved by serious and meaningful negotiations. That was central to the dialogue between John Hume and Gerry Adams which led to the IRA's decision to end its campaign of violence. But this consensus within Irish nationalism is only part of what is necessary to bring a lasting peace.

Now it seems that there could be a real hope that the political party which represents a substantial section of the unionist community also accepts that the only way forward is through negotiation. As David Trimble put it succinctly last weekend: "Does anyone really believe that a new process, made necessary by unionist boycotts (of the present talks) will be any more favourable to unionism?" The UUP leader is not F.W. de Klerk, and the crisis facing Northern Ireland is not of the same scale as that which threatened South Africa. But, as in South Africa, there has been a significant shift in the thinking of one of the main players in the Northern conflict and this is something which we in the Republic have a duty to welcome and encourage.

One notable feature of last weekend's conference was how many questions people asked about recent events in this State. What prominent unionist is fearful of being exposed in the next Department of Foreign Affairs leak? Who will be the first unionist to accept an invitation to the Aras - and who won't be seen dead there? Is it true that Mary McAleese has already asked for The Ride of the Valkyries to be played at her inauguration, in the hope of tempting David Trimble, who adores Wagner, down to Dublin for the day? The election is over. It's time for the bridge building to begin.