The last time the press got something completely wrong in Northern Ireland was when they predicted the outcome of the leadership battle of the UUP. Everyone assumed that John Taylor would get the job. David Trimble did. Effectively it was a contest between two people with the same "not an inch" policy.
But, to our surprise, the UUP went with the David we, up until then, had hardly even heard of. It seems that this choice was made on the basis of intellect. Or at least the impression of intellect. Mr Trimble is armed with a legal background and a facility with language that, perhaps, persuaded the membership that he would be more appropriate as a leader.
Whatever the reasoning, it cannot be doubted that David Trimble is a bright man, and while many of us got frustrated with the prevarications that have held up the peace process, I am beginning to be convinced that he is an astute politician.
This was not always the case. When he decided to go and stand with the Orangemen during Drumcree I was substantially less optimistic. It was clear that we were dealing with a politician who adhered unflinchingly to the traditional stance.
It was a position that was born out of conviction rather than reasoned argument. When there is no group willing or able to mount any sort of viable political opposition, why challenge yourselves? When the opposition is attempting to murder their way to victory, there is a positive disincentive to rationalise, and so potentially weaken, your posture.
It seemed that this situation would persist under the new leader. But it hasn't. Outside forces came into play. While the peace process was being driven from Britain by John Major, the Ulster Unionists had an enviable position. Due to the Conservatives' tenuous grip on power and their reliance on the UUP MPs' votes, they could do as they pleased. Then Labour took over with a massive majority.
The Ulster Unionists found themselves, for the first time, having to negotiate. To argue their point, examine their position and the rationale behind it. They also began to realise that change was inevitable and that some of the truths they had taken to be immutable would be very thoroughly muted.
There is a certain irony that the keystone of their position - that Northern Ireland is an integral part of the United Kingdom and so should be ruled from Westminster - proved to be their undoing. For the first time Westminster and the Ulster Unionists were singing from separate hymn-sheets. Having argued for so long that London should make the rules, they suddenly found London making rules they didn't like.
David Trimble found that flexibility was a necessity. He began the process of figuring out why he and his party stood for what they stood for; how he was going to explain this to his party in such a way that it would follow; what points they could concede and what they could gain from those concessions. To the frustration of everyone else this process took a long time and perhaps we should have been more understanding of the complexity and difficulty of the task he faced.
THE proof that David Trimble is both astute and bright is that he was able to make the profound adjustment to the new reality that existed. But, probably because he is still learning the new way of doing business, I am not entirely convinced he has got the hang of it.
There is a school of thought that would argue that the price Mr Trimble put on progress in the peace process was Mo Mowlam's head. The argument being that he had to look as if he still retained the power to get rid of a figure the UUP had come to dislike. That impression of potency was necessary so that when he presented the deal it did not look as if it had been imposed upon him but rather he could argue that this was what he wanted and so could throw his entire weight behind it. A substantial portion of his party does not seem to have bought this ruse. What we are facing now is the prospect that the press and everyone else may have got it wrong again.
Over the last week a sense of inevitability has surrounded the peace process. We have assumed that everything was now sorted out, that a certain amount of dotting of `i's and crossing of `t's would be required and that some parties would throw a few political shapes, but the deal was done.
Suddenly that prospect has started to recede. The numbers flocking to the Trimble banner have fallen and some are openly flocking off to the opposition. This weekend's vote is beginning to look less like a foregone conclusion and more like a coin toss.
In keeping with the contradictory nature of politics in the North, the key sign of hope has come from acts of violence. Unionism is a movement not drawn from a single demographic group. It represents people from every strata of society. One of its most significant components is a quiet grouping of middle class business people.
While conservative by nature these people are pragmatic. They may not have been convinced by Mr Trimble's arguments and will be reluctant to nail their colours to any mast if they can avoid it, but they will have been worried by the events of the last few days.
Seeing members of their own party viciously attacking each other, verbally and physically, will have given them pause for thought. Their reaction will be to move away from such behaviour. They will not speak out, but they will give their support to David Trimble. And their votes should be just about enough to win the day and secure the peace.
Marie Geoghegan-Quinn can be contacted at mgeoghegan@irish-times.ie