David Trimble says he is "no quitter". At his Ulster Unionist annual conference tomorrow, and in the coming weeks as he faces yet another showdown with his internal opponents, the pro-Belfast Agreement camp will be watching to see if he can hold his nerve and come with all guns blazing. A lot depends on it.
Tomorrow will not see a unionist version of Gunfight at the OK Corral, as one of the No unionists put it. For a start, Mr Trimble's people have ensured a pretty bland agenda, which does not mention policing or South Antrim.
Not that this will stop the antis raising these issues. But in truth they are keeping most of their powder dry until the big shoot-out at the Ulster Unionist Council at the end of this month or in early November.
Mr Trimble is stockpiling a list of achievements and arguments in an effort to withstand the real threat posed by Jeffrey Donaldson and his supporters.
Peter Mandelson in particular, but also Bertie Ahern, President Clinton and, to a lesser extent, Gerry Adams, John Hume and Seamus Mallon will provide whatever support and solidarity they can. But as well as assistance Mr Trimble needs luck and a combative spirit.
The No side is confident that Mr Trimble's days as leader are numbered. Perhaps too confident? "You never write, you never call, only when Trimble's about to fall," joked one anti-agreement Ulster Unionist source when contacted for a comment this week.
The stage is being set for Mr Donaldson, but not by means of a direct challenge. At least, as No camp MP William Ross said yesterday, not yet. Maybe by March, suggested Mr Ross, unwittingly illuminating how Ulster Unionist crises tend to happen in seasonal sequence.
The No source said the plan was to "get Trimble on policy", most probably by means of a motion to pull out of government if the IRA did not decommission, or begin decommissioning - the motion perhaps being also linked to policing.
Mr Trimble maintained his leadership with 53 per cent of the vote in the summer, when the UUC agreed to go back into government with Sinn Fein on the back of an IRA statement to open up arms dumps for inspection, and eventually to put its arsenals "beyond use".
Thirty votes or less is all it takes to swing the vote to the anti-agreement side.
Since the council meeting of May there has, to use the language of the No wing, been one "Mickey Mouse" inspection. "Another inspection isn't going to save David's hide," said the No source. Even some Trimbleites are getting edgy.
There has been some seepage of support and, with the prospect of electoral disaster if UUP fortunes don't improve, it wouldn't take much to open the floodgates.
Anti-agreement unionists have formally called for a council meeting. Their motion will be: "No guns, no government" or, if they don't like the look of the final complexion of the Police Bill, which should be known in a week or so, a stronger motion of "no guns/no RUC, then no government."
Such a motion would end Mr Trimble's career, the senior No source predicted. He conceded that Mr Trimble could adopt some of Mr Donaldson's clothes by himself proposing a slightly qualified version of the same motion. (Such a stance would almost inevitably lead to a suspension of the agreement.)
"Sure, that might save him . . . for a while, but is David going to lead us into the general election next year knowing the party, with him as leader, is going to be slaughtered? I doubt it. This is Jeffrey's time," he said.
There's some danger here for the Lagan Valley MP. Mr Donaldson's opponents will accuse him of funking a leadership challenge in favour of an indecisive attack on policy. While he might not be the one personally to inflict the mortal blow, he will be perceived in that role.
And, as is well proven, the person who wields the dagger doesn't always ascend the throne. The solution could be a compromise "unifying" candidate. A more hardline Reg Empey, for instance?
All that assumes that Mr Trimble's cause is ultimately hopeless, as the No camp assumes. But it isn't. Last week Mr Trimble badgered Bertie Ahern and Peter Mandelson to use their influence and power to devise a four-point package to use as ammunition against the No side.
He won't have it in time for his conference tomorrow but he should have it by the time of the council meeting. He wanted: (1) movement on IRA arms; (2) dilution of Patten; (3) action against republican dissidents; and (4) an end to the loyalist feud.
Lots of conflicting speculation is taking place on what the IRA does next - "securocrat mind games", Sinn Fein alleges. But Gerry Adams says the IRA will deliver, and if he doesn't know, who does?
The No side (and some in Mr Trimble's wing) is again using the phrase "product up front", saying that another arms inspection will not be sufficient. Realistically, that seems highly unlikely, but with another CBM (confidence-building measure) and perhaps a stronger IRA pledge to co-operate with the decommissioning body, the First Minister would be able to point to something which Mr Donaldson, Mr William Ross, Mr William Thompson or the Rev Martin Smyth could not achieve.
Were he so minded, in qualified terms he could parrot the republican line by saying that "the IRA guns are still silent."
Dublin, the SDLP and Sinn Fein want every dot and comma of Patten implemented (although there has been some slippage here from the Taoiseach and at least one SDLP councillor in recent days), but as of the moment Mr Mandelson has his ear in a different direction.
Official word is that he is determined to provide Mr Trimble with some comfort in the completed Police Bill, possibly in allowing the RUC name somewhere in the title deeds of the Police Service of Northern Ireland, and long-fingering the other emotive issues such as the badge and cap.
As a quid pro quo for nationalists, Mr Mandelson could amend his Bill in line with Patten to increase the powers of the Policing Board, the Police Ombudsman and the Oversight Commissioner.
This is a difficult call for Mr Adams and Mr Mallon. As one London observer put it: "If they get 95 per cent of Patten, will they bring the whole house down over the remaining five per cent?"
It is a tactical move for the SDLP and Sinn Fein. They must decide whether Mr Trimble and the agreement are synonymous, or whether the First Minister is dispensable. They know the stakes.
Dublin, the SDLP and Sinn Fein have the political nous to understand that Mr Trimble tomorrow may move on to some of the hard ground on which Ulster Unionist antis are standing. That's just conference politics.
But they will also be looking to him to defend the agreement authoritatively and spotlight its many advantages for unionism, as well as for the general community.
Equally, they will be hoping that Mr Trimble does not overplay his hand in an attempt to finesse the No side by setting unattainable goals on policing or deadlines for IRA decommissioning.
At the time of writing it's relatively quiet on the Shankill, with the UVF and the UDA appearing to be observing an undeclared truce. In recent days the gardai have arrested some dissident republicans, with one charged with "Real IRA" membership and the rest released.
Tomorrow and at his council meeting, Mr Trimble can advert to the four-point package. He can challenge Mr Donaldson to do better, and of course he can challenge the No wing to come up with an alternative that would command support from the nationalist electorate. Better a tricky cross-community consensus than no consensus at all.
If, in the next few weeks, failure is unavoidable, Mr Mandelson may suspend the Assembly and some of the institutions of the agreement to save Mr Trimble, in the abject hope that something better will come along. On UTV last night he put it up to the antis by warning that the collapse of the agreement would mean a stronger role for Dublin in Northern Ireland affairs.
As stated before, the advantage remains with the anti-agreement Ulster Unionist church. But Mr Trimble has a case to make and, if he delivers it assertively at the Waterfront Hall in Belfast tomorrow and in the coming weeks, all may not yet be lost for him or for the agreement.