The decision by Turkey's appeal court to confirm the death sentence on the Kurdish guerilla leader Abdullah Ocalan is not surprising, given the attitudes of its political and military leadership and the cast of popular opinion. But it comes at a particularly delicate time for Turkey's relations with Europe, which its leadership has identified as a vital strategic priority.
It is expected the appeal court decision that the trial and sentence were fair will be appealed to the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg by Ocalan's lawyers, a process that could take up to two years. Within Turkey final decisions rest with the parliament's judicial committee and then with the president, who has the right to waive the death sentence. None has been carried out since 1984. Reacting to the decision yesterday representatives of the European Union and the Council of Europe stressed that such a punishment is incompatible with the basic norms and values they uphold. Carrying it out would put an end to Turkey's ambitions to join the EU for the foreseeable future.
The European Council at Helsinki next month is due to make a crucial decision on enlargement, opening the prospect of membership for up for 12 states, including Turkey, according to a variable timetable. The Turkish government reacted furiously to what it regarded as a rebuff at Luxembourg two years ago, when special conditions on human rights and political reforms seemed to be imposed on its long-standing application to join the EU, not laid down for states such as Bulgaria or Romania.
Turkey's general case for being fully on the list of accession states is strong economically, politically and strategically; but its leaders must learn to deal more calmly with political criticisms of its human rights and minorities policies if they are to carry conviction with other European states.
Among the main grounds for appealing this trial and sentence are the presence of a military judge subject to army discipline on the State Security Court which heard the case. This symbolises the powerful position of the armed forces within the country's political and security system. They have prosecuted the war against Ocalan's Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in the south-eastern part of the country with a severity that matches the ruthlessness of their opponents; 30,000 people have died in it, perhaps ten times that number have been displaced from villages and many Kurds have been driven to support the PKK even though they reject its methods and would certainly accept a political outcome falling far short of its demands. In detention Ocalan has substantially moderated his position, saying he would accept cultural, linguistic and media rights and regional autonomy and made extraordinary admissions of horrendous acts of terrorism against his opponents.
There is little sign of any willingness by the government to contemplate a political solution to the conflict, despite calls for that from European and domestic critics. Coming up to the Helsinki meeting they will be looking for gestures from Turkey along these lines. There will also be conflicting pressures from European states and from the United States to include Turkey in the EU's developing security and defence policies. These circumstances provide opportunities for creative diplomacy. It remains to be seen whether they will be taken up in the next two weeks.