With Kazakhstan's president Nursultan Nazarbeyev confirmed in office for another seven years, Russia has announced that the two states, plus Belarus, are to go ahead with an economic union, the Common Economic Space (CES). Overnight, Moscow will preside over a trading bloc that will act as a counterweight to the EU, with member states adopting a single customs area, joint institutions and a common currency.
It is an idea born in the Kremlin, which appears to have decided that it wants Russia to be a great power, rather than one increasingly subsumed by common European institutions. The CES destroys hopes, born after the fall of the Berlin Wall, that Europe can move towards ever closer integration.
The CES began life in September 2003 when plans were announced for a union of the former Soviet republics of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine. Last December the proposed CES was a key issue in Ukraine's Orange Revolution, with the opposition conscious that being in the CES would make EU membership impossible. Kiev has now turned to face the West, and Russia has announced that Ukraine has been dropped from the CES. Despite this loss, however, the CES will be an economic power house, forming the world's second biggest energy trading bloc after Opec. Russia already pumps a quarter of the world's natural gas plus almost as much oil per day as Saudi Arabia. Kazakhstan is poised to become the world's fifth biggest oil state.
The danger is that economic division will widen the broad gap between east and west. When Bulgaria and Romania join the EU, the map of Nato states will overlay that of the EU. Already Polish politicians are talking of their role as the "eastern bulwark" of democracy. Inside the proposed CES, democracy has a low priority. Belarus is the most repressive regime in Europe. In recent days, the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe has accused Kazakhstan of election violations while the Kremlin is ever more authoritarian.
The EU must not duck this new challenge. First, it must acknowledge the right of sovereign nations to form whatever economic organisations they want. But it must not shirk from criticising abuses in Chechnya, or election shortcomings. And it must make sure it does not become overly dependent on oil and gas from the CES, for risk that Moscow will gain leverage in other areas. Above all, the EU needs to keep the channels open. Across Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, growing numbers of young people and businessmen have seen democracy thanks to travel, the internet and MTV. They need to know the EU will be there for them, however distant a beacon.