Tomorrow's elections for a constituent assembly and provincial parliaments in Iraq present a profound dilemma for democrats the world over. The conditions in which they are being held are deeply flawed by a violent insurgency directed against the occupying forces led by the United States and the interim Iraqi government it appointed last year. This makes it extremely dangerous to vote in several key provinces and has prevented parties from campaigning effectively.
And yet most Iraqis have welcomed the opportunity to vote and are expected to do so if they can. Many of them would like the country's new leadership, arising from these elections and others later this year, to set a clear timetable for the coalition forces to withdraw and for Iraqis to assume full sovereignty.
Their wishes should be respected and supported despite the dangerous conditions involved. On balance, it is better to proceed with these elections than not. It must be open to those excluded to become involved in the constitutional process they open up later in the year.
Iraq is a complex society whose various ethnic and religious groups have coexisted under very different conditions of imperial, independent and totalitarian rule over the last 100 years. This will be the 20th occasion on which they have voted nationally since the Ottoman period. For hundreds of years the Sunni religious minority has had cultural and political superiority over the majority Shia community, even during the period of secular Ba'athist rule under Saddam Hussein. He relied increasingly on particular tribal groups to bolster his ruthless military and political power against Shia and Kurdish rebellions whenever they occurred.
His overthrow by the US-led invasion and the chaos following on from it has profoundly fragmented Iraqi society, as is reflected in the huge numbers of parties and individuals putting themselves forward tomorrow for the 275-member constituent assembly, the 18 provincial ones and the autonomous Kurdish parliament. But the basic dynamic for this election has been set by the determination of the whole Shia community, some 60 per cent of the Iraqi population, to reverse their historic subordination to Sunni rule, or to secular forces relying on it. This has been a consistent demand through the vicissitudes of invasion, occupation, violent resistance and the failure of the new US-backed regime to deliver elementary security and employment for most Iraqis since March 2003.
Just as the elections are flawed, so also will their outcome and legitimacy be flawed. Turnout will be an important indicator of democratic credentials in areas where it is safe to vote. Areas where this is not so are likely to be those in which there is most resistance. President Bush said yesterday he will respect the outcome of the elections, including any demands arising from them for US troops to withdraw. That will be the real test of their legitimacy. It remains to be seen whether the elections provide a real basis for Iraqi sovereignty and self-rule.