Una Mullally: ‘Youthquake’ marks political awakening of millennials

For its word of the year, the Oxford English Dictionary bravely opted for a word few use. "Youthquake" is not really about celebrating a word that was suddenly on everyone's lips in 2017 (it wasn't), but more about what it symbolises. The meaning behind it – the political awakening of millennials – is very real, if only there was a less cringey, try-hard word to encapsulate that.

The turnout of young voters in the 2017 British general election, the chants of Jeremy Corbyn’s name that filled the weed- and cider-heavy air of British music festivals, and the participants in the Women’s Marches globally – estimated to be about 10 million people – form some of the energy behind such a “youthquake”. The political engagement of millennials in the United States and Britain has occurred at a time of unprecedented political turmoil, so perhaps a youthquake cannot exist without a simultaneous societal tsunami.

What would it take for a youthquake to happen in Ireland?

Last week, Michael Hobbes's piece for the Huffington Post on the devastating financial future facing "Generation Screwed" millennials was an excellent if US-centric appraisal of what young people have to dread rather than look forward to. Young Americans have 300 per cent more student debt than their parents did and are half as likely to own a home as young adults in 1975 were. One in five is living in poverty, and many won't be able to retire until they're 75.

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They face stagnating salaries, rising housing, health and education costs, depleting job security and a recession that accelerated “a historic convergence of economic maladies, many of them decades in the making”.

While the US is getting richer, its workers are being squeezed. A 27-year-old man’s earnings in 2013 were 31 per cent less than those of a 27-year-old in 1969, according to a study by economists from Princeton University, University of Chicago, and University of Minnesota.

The stressful insecurity that comes with being under 35 in many developed countries today centres on a knowledge that things previously taken as normal – if hard-worked-for – milestones in life are beyond one’s reach. These include owning a home, having a pension, having job security that stretches beyond short-term contracts, adequate healthcare and so on.

In the media, older commentators fail to see the wood for the trees. They focus on aspects of young people’s lives that irritate them, such as brunch and intersectionality. They see trends such as people moving back in their parents as a sign of immaturity as opposed to one of financial necessity. And they hear conversations about injustice and demands for standards as “entitlement” as opposed to understandable desires for equality and accountability.

Trends and predictions

In Ireland, market research agency Ignite Research has been gauging what Irish people are interested in and talking about, by analysing 500 news stories and the relationship 30,000 people have to those news stories, with Finian Murphy compiling the research into an easy-to-read report about trends and predictions, called The 500.

It states that four in five Irish people recognise there is a growing divide between those who own a house and those who do not. The report also breaks down the differing priorities that depend on whether you rent or own. “Home-owners want resources to go on health (as this group tends to be older families or older adults),” it says, “while renters want resources to be focused on affordable housing (as this group tends to be younger families and young adults).”

Unlike in Britain, where young people's political energy went into backing the Labour Party and its leader Jeremy Corbyn, echoing the Bernie Sanders phenomenon in the US, Ireland's pending youthquake does not have a broad political machine to get behind

Ignite predicts that the housing crisis will be the news story of 2018. The consumers of tomorrow will have less spending power, it predicts, with young families having to budget more than the generation before them. “For every €100 earned, older families can afford to spend €38 after they cover groceries, mortgage and other costs of living. In comparison, for every €100 earned by young families, they can afford to spend €26 on brands after covering these same costs.” The fault lines are pronounced in our society, and housing and youth inequality will continue to aggravate them.

Unlike in Britain, where young people’s political energy went into backing the Labour Party and its leader Jeremy Corbyn, echoing the Bernie Sanders phenomenon in the US, Ireland’s pending youthquake does not have a broad political machine to get behind, apart from the victories the Solidarity-People Before Profit alliance can claim to represent, such as the campaign against water charges. Imagine how different the Labour Party’s fortunes might be now if Michael D Higgins was its leader and not our President?

Youngest Taoiseach

But 2017 did see a youthquake within the political establishment. Fine Gael has accentuated its youthful image, spearheaded by the youngest Taoiseach ever, and the succession of Young Fine Gael to the highest political ranks. Leo Varadkar (38), Simon Harris (31), Eoghan Murphy (35), Paschal Donohoe (43), and Simon Coveney (45), look novel even if their ideologies are far from radical. In contrast, the average age of Labour’s front bench is 58.

As Corbyn and Sanders showed, it’s not about age, it’s about ideals and authenticity. If an Irish youthquake is forthcoming, it’s doubtful that Irish politics will provide a central figure. Instead, we should be listening to the concerns of young people, because they will predict the biggest political and social battles of the coming year. And for nearly everyone, that’s all about housing.