The results of the first round of French parliamentary elections are disappointing for President Chirac and his government and disquieting for France's partners in the European Union. The decision of the Prime Minister, Alain Juppe, to resign next week simply acknowledges the political reality; the centre right will be hard pressed to secure a majority in next Sunday's runoff contest. Should it fail, France faces a period of uncertainty as policy adjusts to the prospect of a cohabitation arrangement between President Chirac and a left bloc with a significantly different perspective on privatisation, welfare cuts and the European single currency. After this result the left enters the final round as clear favourite.
This was never going to be an easy election for Mr Juppe to win. France is suffering from high unemployment, while its economy badly needs to be restructured in order to face world competition. Fiscal austerities imposed by Mr Juppe to ensure France qualifies for monetary union reinforced these problems. But his remote style of leadership has also served to alienate public opinion. Although the European issue is central it has been only minimally aired by the government side. Given that Mr Chirac himself reversed his position on these matters after he came into office it is not surprising that this first round should have so drastically reduced the right wing's huge parliamentary majority of 1993.
As always, the final round will depend crucially on tactical voting within the main blocs. Many will switch allegiances, having registered a protest vote on this occasion. There is great uncertainty over where the National Front votes will go. The party has performed strongly, based on a programme of xenophobic nationalism, racist attacks on immigrants and outright opposition to the Maastricht Treaty. Its priority is to secure parliamentary representation, of which it has been deprived by the electoral system. But after that it may find the leftwing bloc's increasingly critical attitude to Maastricht more palatable than the austerities planned by the centre right.
On the left, similar tactical questions face the Communists, the far left and the ecologists, all of whom benefited from protest votes. The Socialists have insisted that should they win - their critical but favourable policy towards monetary union will prevail. There has been a notable convergence between the two main blocs on the issue during the campaign but a disquieting uncertainty about France's EU policy seems certain whatever the result of the runoff contest. Either the right will scrape home with a small majority, which will make it more difficult to manage the government's reforms and economic policy, or the left wing parties will be elected on a programme substantially at variance with Mr Chirac's. While the fundamental direction of French policy may not change, the air of uncertainty is hardly what is required as the single currency decision looms next year.
This has been an unsatisfactory campaign so far, which has left many French voters unhappy with the choice on offer or apathetic about the result. Clarity and resolution may now be forced on the parties by a realisation that they need to bring the voters along with them. But it seems unlikely that the final result will be a decisive endorsement of either political bloc.