The announcement by the Quarterly National Household Survey that the level of unemployment has fallen to 95,100 represents a milestone in the political and economic life of this State. For the first time since 1978, the 100,000 threshold has been breached. People over 40 will remember the derision which greeted the comment by Mr Jack Lynch and Dr Martin O'Donoghue that a Government should resign if the unemployment numbers exceeded the 100,000 mark. Now, we have come close to what many economists would define as "full employment".
The latest statistics paint an extraordinary picture of movement in the workforce in the last year. There were 1,555,000 persons in employment in the first quarter of 1999 - an annual increase of almost 72,000, with full-time jobs accounting for all of this increase. Compared with 138,600 unemployed a year ago, the level of unemployment fell by 43,500 or almost a third. The labour force grew by 28,500 between the first quarters of 1998 and 1999, with an increase of 13,400 for men and 15,100 for women. While the labour force participation rate for males fell from 69.7 per cent to 69.4 per cent, it increased for females from 44.3 per cent to 44.5 per cent.
Other figures in yesterday's survey are equally revealing for the economic planners in the immediate future. The number of part-time workers - at just under 250,000 - has changed very little in the past year. The majority of part-time workers indicated that they were not looking for full-time work. Much of the labour force growth in the past year has been in the business-related services sector, notably transport, communication, and storage; and the wholesale and retail trade. Not surprisingly, construction showed strong growth while there was little overall change in public-service numbers.
With the Government partners beginning to examine their strategy for the Estimates and Budget later this year, it is worth recording that the unemployment figures fell for both men and women in the latest survey. In the first quarter of 1999, it is estimated that there were 60,100 men unemployed and the majority of those were looking for full-time work. There were 35,200 women unemployed, of whom about a third were looking for part-time rather than full-time work.
The dip below the 100,000 mark, after more than a generation when the public finances and the jobs crises dominated the political agenda of successive governments, was reflected in the reactions from the various interest groups yesterday. The Irish National Organisation of the Unemployed suggested that if the Government was seriously committed to ensuring that all people benefit from the Celtic Tiger, it should set real targets to eradicate poverty and not simply leave the fate of thousands to "the luck of the market". The Irish Business Employers' Confederation called for measures to increase the supply of housing and childcare, to reduce the burden of taxation for those on low and middle incomes and to reintegrate the long-term unemployed into the workforce.
While the Government moved cautiously to claim success, it would do well to herald the warnings from major international companies about the skills shortages. It could also indicate a measure of real intent to process the necessary paperwork to allow highly-qualified immigrants to enter the workplace.