Unionism risks being outmanoeuvred on border poll

In a piece for the News Letter – Northern Ireland’s main unionist newspaper – former Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Peter Robinson said: “Success at a border poll will be down to a steady and consistent espousal of the real value of United Kingdom membership, not a three-week splash.”

Within minutes of the piece going online, nationalists were praising him for facing political reality in his willingness to mention a border poll, while some unionists claimed he was playing into Sinn Féin’s hands by seeming to accept the “inevitability” of a poll (something he didn’t say in the piece).

While Robinson isn’t claiming a poll is inevitable, I think he would agree it is far more likely than it has ever been. Which is why he suggested the creation of a think tank to do what he describes as the spadework for a campaign to promote the union. He, more than most unionist leaders, recognises the danger of leaving everything to the last moment: a tendency that has led unionism into one unprepared-for-crisis after another since the late 1960s.

The day before Robinson’s piece appeared, Micheál Martin was setting out how the Government was “pursuing our goal of building consensus around a shared future, founded on the Good Friday Agreement ... [and launching] a Shared Island Dialogue series to foster constructive and inclusive engagement on all aspects of our shared future”. It’s the sort of language which tends to rattle traditional party-political unionism – with Traditional Unionist Voice leader Jim Allister speaking for many when he said: “I think it’s a new tack by Dublin to try and sugar-coat the same old agenda: the absorption of Northern Ireland out of the UK into a 32-county republic. It’s not something that would entice anyone who believes in the union.”

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But I’m pretty sure Martin wasn’t really addressing the older voices and views within traditional unionism, anyway. He was addressing the tens of thousands who were born after 1998. He was addressing that section of unionism worried by the consequences of Brexit and the regeneration of a particularly insular English nationalism. He was addressing those who believe that unionism, in its present guise, doesn’t represent the totality, complexity and nuance of their interests. He was addressing those who might feel more comfortable in a united Ireland rather than a UK shorn of Scotland and dominated by a “new” Conservatism which doesn’t give a damn about Northern Ireland. It’s no coincidence that the first Shared Island Dialogue will be “new generations and new voices on the Good Friday Agreement”.

Division within unionism

At this point it’s unlikely that either the Ulster Unionist Party or DUP will be mandating any of their younger members to take part in the series of dialogues. But it would be a surprise if there weren’t a number of younger people from a unionist or pro-union background who do want their voices and views heard and who may be wanting to say things that mainstream political unionism would prefer them not to say. That will be a problem, not least because it will be interpreted by some as yet another division within unionism.

And it’s that division which Robinson will want addressed by his proposed new think tank. Unionism is a very broad, diverse and occasionally cantankerous family, containing members who can sniff one drop of Lundyism in a million drops of Orange juice. I’ve been to too many unionist meetings where more energy has been expended on filleting and roasting family members than it has on deconstructing the arguments of its political and constitutional opponents. Too many meetings where the agenda is dominated by internal witch-finding rather than strategising and preparation.

Right now – and I don’t think it’s just down to Brexit and demographics – all of nationalism and republicanism seem to be on the same page. Sinn Féin continues to promote the “unity project” above and beyond all else and is strong on both sides of the Border. A new form of civic nationalism has been organising and campaigning across Northern Ireland, pushing the case for a united Ireland. And Martin has pushed the issue up the agenda after last week’s speech. Interestingly, in a response to a question afterwards he said: “The Government has said that for the next five years a border poll is not on our agenda ... I’ve made it very clear it’s not on our agenda for the next five years.”

Robinson knows that five years is but a blink in politics. He knows, too, that in five years it might be Mary Lou McDonald who is taoiseach. Any unionist who thinks that a border poll can’t or won’t happen is deluding themselves. All of nationalism is working on the basis that the poll is more likely than not. Key players within nationalism are preparing for that poll and making the case for unity every day and from every available platform. Unionists must do the same for the union.

Yet there remains an element within party-political unionism still tied to the don’t, won’t, can’t, shan’t approach: an approach that has seen them outmanoeuvred again and again. I can understand why they’ll probably reject the Shared Island Dialogues and I can understand why they’re reluctant to talk about a possible border poll. But I cannot understand why they seem so reluctant to prepare for all eventualities. That way lies madness, further division, incoherence and eventual defeat.

Alex Kane is a commentator based in Belfast. He was formerly director of communications for the Ulster Unionist Party