The DUP has set its face against any Brexit deal the EU is likely to offer, objecting on principle to even the possibility of Northern Ireland having a unique relationship to Europe.
The UUP campaigned for Remain in the EU referendum, but switched to Leave during last year’s general election – officially to accept “the will of the British people” but mainly to avoid DUP jibes of being on the same side as Sinn Féin. Having made the switch, the UUP is now sniping at the DUP from the right, warning its larger rival to “maintain the integrity of the United Kingdom”.
This is another classic unionist pattern where everyone is dragged to the hard-line position for fear of being called a “sell-out”.
The UUP’s shift has left a gap in the orange spectrum between it and Alliance, a party that describes itself as “agnostic on the union” but which has traditionally been seen as unionist by default.
The <a class="search" href='javascript:window.parent.actionEventData({$contentId:"7.1213540", $action:"view", $target:"work"})' polopoly:contentid="7.1213540" polopoly:searchtag="tag_organisation">Irish Government</a> owes unionism nothing, and has only had intractable unionist parties to deal with
Alliance is saying all the right things about Brexit from a moderate unionist perspective – that nothing in the withdrawal agreement threatens the Belfast Agreement’s consent principle on the union, that regulatory checks across the Irish Sea would not amount to a new border, and that Northern Ireland has always had distinct arrangements within the UK.
However, Alliance has simultaneously been saying all the wrong things about Brexit – claiming it will undermine or even breach the Belfast Agreement if it affects relationships within Ireland in any way.
Loyalists have predictably accused Alliance of switching sides. This is pathetic, and the party deserves respect for standing its ground. However, it can legitimately be accused of confusion and even obsession over Brexit, and this appears to have genuinely driven it from agnosticism on the union to openly flirting with atheism – a shock for unionists, who have never voted for the party in large numbers but who have viewed it as part of their conscience for half a century.
That relationship is now breaking down.
Erroneous claim
Beyond Alliance, unionists can observe the SDLP repeating the erroneous claim that Brexit breaches the Belfast Agreement, and Sinn Féin demanding a Border poll. Of course, it is not the responsibility of nationalists to make a unionist case for anything.
So who will the make the unionist case for a realistic Brexit deal?
That question matters because moderate unionists are the critical constituency in building any outright majority or cross-community consensus. Sinn Féin, the SDLP and Alliance speak for just a fraction under half the electorate, and cannot lay claim to the 56 per cent Remain vote in Northern Ireland without taking the large unionist contribution to it on board.
An estimated one-third of unionists voted Remain, almost all of whom are certain to still be unionists. Many will be open to a workable Brexit compromise.
Selling a withdrawal agreement to them should be the British government’s job. It has failed to do so not because of its confidence and supply agreement with the DUP – that only makes persuading unionism more pressing. The British government is doing a terrible job simply because it is a terrible government, barely able to make a Brexit case to itself.
The Irish Government owes unionism nothing, and has only had intractable unionist parties to deal with.
It could be criticised for careless or cynical escalation of rhetoric, but only to the extent this makes its own responsibility – getting the best deal for Ireland – a little more difficult. There is scant reason to believe Dublin could have said much consistent with that responsibility that would have placated the DUP or helped the UUP to hold its nerve.
The political subtext of this could not be clearer – the only sustainable future for the union is a new and less exclusively unionist settlement
EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has sought to "de-dramatise" the backstop for a unionist audience, but this has come too late, and he is not available for the hand-holding Northern Ireland seems to require.
So it has fallen to the business community, normally so coy about political involvement, to make a default unionist case for the withdrawal agreement and the backstop in particular.
The “best of both worlds” view business has taken on access to UK and EU markets is a crucial message for unionists, yet one they find challenging to hear – because ultimately it says Northern Ireland should distinguish itself further within the UK if it is to prosper and even survive.
The political subtext of this could not be clearer – the only sustainable future for the union is a new and less exclusively unionist settlement. How could it be otherwise, with unionists losing their majority and both communities becoming effectively equal pluralities?
Brexit has thrown this obvious fact into sharp relief – and also offered a perfectly-timed solution through the concept of EU special treatment. But unionism has no leadership that will heed this warning and grasp this precious opportunity.