Unionists need fear nothing but fear itself

Tony Blair has urged the people of Scotland, who vote today in a referendum on devolution, to put their trust in their own political…

Tony Blair has urged the people of Scotland, who vote today in a referendum on devolution, to put their trust in their own political instincts and considerable skills. There is nothing for them to fear but fear itself.

On the issue of whether a Scottish parliament should be allowed limited powers to raise taxes, the Labour leader said: "To suggest that this is a power which cannot be entrusted to the Scottish people is wrong, even absurd." Of course.

All the signs are that after years of debate, and many setbacks, the Scots will turn out in large numbers to take this first step towards, at the very least, home rule.

An opinion poll yesterday in the Scotsman showed 72 per cent in favour of a Scottish parliament and 28 per cent against. A 59 per cent majority of those asked want the new assembly to have tax-raising powers. Fears that the outpouring of grief in Britain following Princess Diana's death might lead to a surge of pro-Union sentiment - and thus undermine the Yes vote - seem groundless. If anything, many Scots, like many unionists, seem to have been deeply offended by tabloid headlines urging the Queen to "Come Home To Your People", as though Balmoral was not her home and the Scots not really her people.

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A greater threat to the government's proposals is voter apathy, particularly in Wales, where people are being asked to accept a parliament with much more limited powers.

Whether this will lead in time to full independence for either Wales or Scotland, as many nationalists passionately hope, is a question for another day. Dramatic constitutional change of this kind is best taken at a reasonable pace. But one thing is clear. Tony Blair is determined to "take on the big state" and devolve power to the regions. It is part of his modernising project to effect structural changes which are already taken for granted in other European states.

Today's poll in Scotland will be watched very closely by Northern Ireland unionists. But the broad devolution debate in Britain, the push towards greater powers for the regions, has also profound implications for this State - for relationships between North and South, and with the neighbouring island. It is just one of the reasons the unionists are feeling so jumpy just now.

Until very recently many unionists believed their future would be secured by much closer political integration within the United Kingdom. Sir James Molyneaux was known to favour it as the best way forward. Now, as proposals for devolution in Britain gain favour, the idea of integration for Northern Ireland seems unreal.

The British and Irish governments have long recognised there will have to be much more complex political arrangements which recognise that there are two communities in the North with conflicting allegiances and aspirations. Inevitably, as in Scotland and Wales, this is perceived as immensely threatening by those who fear that any changes in the structures of the Union will inevitably weaken it. They are not convinced by Tony Blair's passionate plea to the Scots to embrace "the right changes for the times we live in".

Officially, both governments still hope that the Ulster Unionists will decide this weekend that their representatives should sit down with Sinn Fein when the talks open again next week at Stormont. But, for obvious reasons, that prospect seems unlikely. Realistically, it may be that attending "proximity talks" in the same building as Sinn Fein will be as far as David Trimble and his colleagues can go.

The consultations party leaders conducted in recent weeks with UUP supporters have yielded a sharp geographical divide between the east and west of Northern Ireland. This echoes the differences within the Orange Order earlier this summer over what should be done about controversial marches. A unionist friend told me: "On the whole, people living west of the Bann are much keener to see the party go into full talks and argue for the unionist case.

"Partly, it's because they've been at the sharp end of IRA violence and desperately want to prevent a return to violence. But also they have sat with Sinn Fein in council chambers and don't see that as a major betrayal. It's people in Larne and Portadown who can't and won't stomach the idea."

There are exceptions, of course, like the Ulster Unionist MP for West Tyrone, William Thompson, but this is a general pattern.

If this is the case, then what is most badly needed is that the period immediately ahead should be handled very carefully by the leaders of Irish nationalism, particularly the SDLP. This is a time for patience and for taking the long view, and it is one of the reasons to welcome John Hume's decision to put his commitment to peace above any personal ambitions.

Sinn Fein is already impatient and saying the party has been promised substantive negotiations and will make it a test of the British government's good faith that these should go ahead. "They were quite prepared to have empty chairs when we were missing", was how one republican source put it to me. But this ignores the real problems which face David Trimble, not to mention the fact that the absence of the unionists would render the talks meaningless.

MR Trimbles's position is extremely fragile. Many in his party are aghast at the idea of sitting down with Sinn Fein so soon after a ceasefire, though these attitudes will hopefully soften as time passes. Paisley and McCartney have already accused Trimble of betrayal for staying in the talks. On the other hand, there are serious worries about the loyalist ceasefire and this has greatly increased the sense of foreboding in the broad unionist community.

John Hume, who has worked so hard to bring Gerry Adams and the Provisional movement in from a far bleaker political wilderness, will understand the importance of bringing David Trimble, and the community which he represents, through this next patch of political desert. He - and they - need more time to come to terms with the momentous challenges ahead.

It is in the interests of all the people of this island that, in search of a lasting peace, they should get it.

But in the end, the unionists will have to accept that the political landscape of these islands has changed and that there is no going back to the past. The UK, to which unionists so desperately want to belong, is changing before our eyes and Tony Blair is determined to maintain this momentum.

The message the Prime Minister gave to the Scots this week - to put their trust in their own abilities - is one which should resonate in the unionist community. There is nothing for unionists to fear but fear itself.