THE CONTAGION is showing signs of spreading. The sclerotic and brutal 30-year regime of Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak has been shaken to the core in the last few days by mass protests in many of its cities and towns inspired by events in Tunisia. Today, Egypt is likely to face a further test as Friday prayers bring huge numbers of the country’s increasingly uncowed youth on to the streets again. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Yemenis have been demonstrating in the country’s capital calling for the removal of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, another autocrat who has outstayed his welcome after 32 years in power.
To date in Egypt at least four protesters and two policeman have died in the clashes and between 700 and 1,200 are reported to have been arrested with many of them badly beaten. Egypt’s general prosecutor yesterday charged 40 with trying to “overthrow the regime”.
An Islamist insurgency challenged Mubarak in the 1990s and was firmly crushed by his huge security apparatus. But this is the first time since taking office in 1981 that he and his powerful state machine have faced such widespread protests from Egypt’s large youthful population. Two-thirds of its people and 90 per cent of the unemployed are under 30. About 40 per cent of the population live in poverty on less than $2 a day and a sharp rise in food prices, which also sparked riots in 2008, combined with joblessness, poverty, and the regime’s authoritarianism are all important ingredients in the explosive cocktail.
To date, to the relief of western powers who see 80-million strong Egypt as a key regional strategic ally, Islamism is not a factor. Like those in Tunisia, the protesters remain largely leaderless and the banned opposition, the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, has so far stood aside, although members have participated in the demonstrations. Prominent reformer and the former head of the United Nations nuclear agency, Mohamed El Baradei, around whom the liberal opposition has gathered, has made clear he will join but will not lead street marches.
Yet, for all the impressive size of the street movement, the balance of forces in Egypt remains critically different from that in Tunisia, the tipping point perhaps not yet close. A relatively smaller Egyptian middle class and trade union movement is easier to keep under control and, unlike Tunisia, the loyalty of the army to the regime and to its business support base, in which it is heavily embroiled, remains solid.
However, there are persistent rumours that the 82-year-old Mubarak, who is unwell, wishes to maintain his dynastic rule, either by standing for a sixth term in September’s presidential election or by passing the baton to his son Gamal. But that prospect has been causing disquiet in the army and the protests, which have singled out Mubarak, will make it all the more difficult. If the current unrest fails to effect a democratic transformation, it may yet shake the tree sufficiently to ease the Mubarak clan into retirement.