Ministers and officials in the North believe they have narrowed the ground under loyalist and republican paramilitaries, writes Frank Millar, London Editor
Not for the first time, it seems the Americans have come to the (at least temporary) rescue of the peace process. Some weeks ago this newspaper's Northern Editor, Gerry Moriarty, gave the first hint of a plan attributed to Ambassador Richard Haas, President Bush's special envoy on Northern Ireland. Put simply, it was that the pro-agreement parties would put past disputes behind them, draw a line in the sand over breaches of both loyalist and republican ceasefires, and "recommit".
Downing Street appeared somewhat reluctant last night to cede all credit to the Americans - prompting unworthy suspicions that they might have been a touch more generous towards a Clinton White House. But no: Irish sources, too, insisted it was more a case of London, Dublin and Washington converging on the same general approach.
Whatever. The approach outlined by Dr John Reid to MPs at Westminster yesterday was essentially that: a call on all sides to look forward rather than back, and to reaffirm their commitment to the Mitchell principles of democracy and non-violence, certain in the knowledge that, if they are further dishonoured, collapsing public confidence will spell the end for the Belfast Agreement.
The very fact of asking the parties to reaffirm that commitment outraged the leading dissident UUP MP Mr Jeffrey Donaldson. It was "an insult" to the constitutional parties - the Ulster Unionists, the SDLP and the DUP - he told the Northern Ireland Secretary across the Commons floor.
And as weary MPs from all other parts of the UK departed Westminster for the long summer break, it was plain that Mr David Trimble's eagerly awaited escape will probably not be long enough.
Ulster Unionism's predicted September crisis seems more certain now, not least because, as one civil servant put it last night, "yet again David has led his party to the top of the hill and back down again". This is unduly harsh. Mr Trimble cannot maintain credibility even as the minority unionist leader if he shows himself unresponsive to events on the ground in Northern Ireland.
That said, politics is a harsh trade. The First Minister and Ulster Unionist leader did force this latest political crisis, with his repeated demand that Dr Reid form an adjudication on the status of the IRA ceasefire. In recent weeks he has accused the British government of letting the IRA away, quite literally, with murder. The Prime Minister, Mr Blair and the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, travelled to Belfast earlier this month at his behest. Yesterday's deadline was of Mr Trimble's determination. Indeed the Jeffrey Donaldson/David Burnside chorus for British government action found no clearer expression than in Mr Trimble's seeming demand that London bypass the existing need for a cross-community vote in the Assembly and take unto itself the power to expel Sinn Féin from ministerial office.
He was never going to get it. London was no more in the exclusion business than Dublin or the SDLP. By Tuesday night it became clear that Mr Trimble had been forced to consider an alternative approach - one based on the existing legislation empowering the Secretary of State to ask the Assembly to consider the exclusion of a party from office if he found its related paramilitary organisation in breach of its commitment to exclusively peaceful means.
The obvious problem with that, of course, was that Dr Reid (like his predecessors Mr Mandelson and Dr Mowlam) had always had that power and never used it, doggedly determining the ceasefires "in the round" still intact. To which problem Mr Trimble was thought to have divined a solution: a new independent element in the auditing and assessment of the ceasefires.
As The Irish Times reported yesterday, London was disposed to seek some compromise on this concept but, crucially, without diminishing the ultimate decision-making authority of the Secretary of State acting on the advice of his security chiefs. In the Commons yesterday Dr Reid said he would consult in coming weeks about the possibility of inviting some person or persons "to shine a light on levels of paramilitary violence in the community" and to "supplement" the judgments he would make.
However, even this limited concession was reduced during further exchanges. Pressed by Labour MP Kate Hoey to allow some independent mechanism for the assessment of ceasefires, Dr Reid answered: "No, I will not abrogate that duty." Before that Mr Trimble had insisted the government urgently present proposals for an "alternative mechanism" to audit ceasefires, bluntly telling Dr Reid that no unionist would give credibility to an assessment by any Secretary of State.
Overall, Mr Trimble's was a measured response. He did not dismiss the Blair or Reid statements out of hand, grasped the opportunity for more time, and welcomed Dr Reid's promise of greater frankness, openness and transparency in decision-making. However, officials from Number 10 and the Northern Ireland Office had first watched nervously as Mr Trimble's flank was dangerously exposed by the Conservative spokesman, Mr Quentin Davies. He accused Dr Reid of "extraordinary vacuousness" and mocked him for bravery only in "repeating words the Prime Minister said four years ago".
While not denying the essential truth of this, ministers and officials believe they have significantly changed the ground rules for the conduct of the peace process, and narrowed the ground under both the loyalist and republican paramilitaries. They were never going to resort to the unionist language of threat and exclusion. Without it, Dr Reid and Mr Blair none the less made plain that the trust on which the Good Friday accord depends for its survival demands that the transition from violence to democracy continues apace, is not stalled, and is brought to a completion, to the ultimate point of paramilitary disbandment.
Dr Reid urged that the progress made should not become hostage to the few still committed to violence.
Whether the unionists are listening he may know come September - if Mr Donaldson and company finally try to oust Mr Trimble - or next May, if the paramilitaries have observed the new rules, so ensuring that there will, in fact, be a second Assembly election.