US President's UN speech seems to give green light to Israel to expel or assassinate Arafat, writes Ali Halimeh
America's hesitant position as an "even-handed" peacebroker in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict was again highlighted last week by President George Bush's speech to the UN General Assembly. In it he delivered a one-sided denunciation of the leadership of Palestinian President Yasser Arafat.
In a warning, ostensibly to European countries, President Bush dictated that "world leaders should withdraw all favour and support from any Palestinian ruler who fails his people and betrays their cause".
This unmistakable reference to the Palestinian President has a number of meanings and a great number of possible serious implications.
Describing the Palestinians as a "long-suffering people" - perhaps his only accurate observation - Mr Bush said that "commitment to democratic reform is essential to resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict".
At the same time the US sharply contrasted with other nations by failing to condemn illegal Israeli actions in the Occupied Territories, including the use of excessive force and breeches of humanitarian law against a civilian population, that have undermined the popularity for peaceful dialogue in Palestinian society.
Mr Bush also ignored efforts by the Palestinian leadership to encourage peace and curb violent resistance to an illegal Israeli occupation, and to counter the desperation that catapults young Palestinians into committing unimaginable acts such as suicide bombing.
Perhaps the most serious implication of Mr Bush's speech, however, is that it has laid the groundwork for further destabilisation in the Middle East by seemingly giving the green light to Israeli Prime Minister Mr Ariel Sharon's recently re-stated plan to expel or assassinate the Palestinian President.
In the last few weeks Mr Sharon announced his plan to expel Mr Arafat at what he called "a convenient time". This announcement surprised many because Mr Sharon had given Mr Bush a personal "pledge" not to expel Mr Arafat or to cause him any harm.
It is a natural assumption, therefore, that Mr Sharon's comfort in making new assertions about his intention are due to some informal understanding with the US.
The White House and the Israeli Prime Minister are showing signs of anxiety that Mr Arafat will receive a renewed term in office as leader following the Palestinian Authority's announcement of simultaneous municipal, parliamentary and presidential elections in the spring of 2005.
These will be the first Palestinian elections since inaugural elections were conducted in January 1996. They are expected to involve all parties, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which boycotted elections in 1996 in protest over the Oslo peace process.
For Palestinians the elections represent a long-awaited opportunity to cast a free vote and define the agenda for future self-governance, including reforms, and the terms of peace with Israel. Mr Arafat will contest the presidential election.
However, this is not what the US or Israel want. If Mr Arafat, demonised for years by the US and Israelis, is re-elected democratically by popular vote, who then will the US and Israel legitimately negotiate peace with?
The outlook for the newly announced elections is already bleak.
On previous occasions when the Palestinian Authority has announced elections, the Israelis mounted incursions, curfews and other measures, which severely restricted any possibility of conducting fair and unimpeded elections.
In the six months prior to elections planned in January 2003, the Israelis mounted a full-scale invasion of Palestinian cities. They levelled the Jenin refugee camps and destroyed the Old City of Nablus. The elections were eventually postponed.
The early signs that the Israelis wish to create havoc in the Palestinian electoral process are evident this time with the deliberate hampering of voter registration in East Jerusalem, one of the main Palestinian constituencies. Palestinian East Jerusalem was allowed to vote in 1996, but is being prevented this time.
Any thwarting of elections in Jerusalem by the Israelis could destroy the entire election process.
There is clearly a joint US and Israeli desire to control the future leadership of the Palestinian people and Mr Bush's speech demonstrates the US's intention to try to obstruct the re-election of Mr Arafat.
Yet, despite widespread disillusion with the peace process and the slow pace of reform of Palestinian structures, Mr Arafat remains the most popular figurehead in the struggle for Palestinian self-determination. He won the presidential election in 1996 with 88 per cent of the vote.
By interfering in the election of Palestinian leaders, and by giving potentially a green light for the expulsion of Mr Arafat before renewed elections, Mr Bush has lessened the prospect for peace and created new ground for radicalism.
In 2003 the European Union, Russia, the UN and the US developed a plan, known as the "roadmap" for peace.
It was designed to reach a final and comprehensive settlement to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict by 2005 and to create an independent and democratic Palestinian state to live side by side with Israel.
Nothing has happened. Palestinians have been blamed for not protecting Israel's security and for not preventing Palestinian suicide bombers.
Yet it needs to be said that there is no existing superstructure that can absolutely deter a suicide bomber from reaching a civilian bus in Israel or a crowded market. Not even the Apartheid Wall that Israel is creating.
Why should exclusive blame fall on the Palestinian Authority for a political climate that incites radical opposition with heinous results, when the root cause of the conflict is continually brushed under the carpet, namely the illegal presence of Israelis on Palestinian soil?
There is no dialogue for peace in the Middle East today. The entire process needs the reasoning and support of a growing number of mature voices around the world, including Ireland. These voices should be calling for the root causes of the conflict to be tackled. Military and security responses cannot be the only answer.
We need to talk to stop the killing. And that will never happen if the US does not take a more balanced approach and facilitate rather than impede dialogue.
• Ali Halimeh is Delegate General of Palestine to Ireland