There is a great contrast between the confident statements by President Bush and US military leaders about Iraq's future and the realities on the ground there. The timetable set out by Mr Bush at his press conference in Washington for a transfer of sovereignty to Iraqis on June 30th and elections in January leading to agreement on a constitutional settlement cannot be reconciled with the widespread rebellion against occupation forces, the loss of life and the comprehensive breakdown of security involved.
Yesterday's agreement between Mr Bush and the Israeli prime minister, Mr Sharon, will further inflame opinion in the Middle East towards US policy, making it more difficult to deliver on it.
Mr Bush gave a solemn statement of his administration's objectives at his third prime time press conference in the White House on Tuesday night. Despite advance notice of the questions to be asked, he appeared defensive and uncomfortable with them. He repeated the calendar of US disengagement without showing how it can realistically be accomplished. He denied that the fighting involves a popular uprising or a civil war in Iraq, blaming it rather on a "power grab" by specific groups of Baathists, extremist clerics and foreign groups. He insisted that "we will succeed in Iraq" but was vague about the means to do so. He said "we'll find that out soon" when asked which Iraqis the US-led coalition will transfer sovereignty to. He relies on the United Nations and NATO to facilitate US disengagement without firm evidence of whether they are prepared to do so. He denies playing an imperial role and says he wants to see an end to the US-led coalition's occupation of Iraq.
Mr Bush went on to say the US is "changing the world" in the Middle East by the intervention, and underlined how challenging a task it is. This refers to his administration's ambitions to use Iraq as a beacon of democracy in the region. But even if the Iraqi transition happens as smoothly as Mr Bush expects, it will take time and can be accomplished only incrementally, not in one short year.
It will certainly be affected by reaction to yesterday's agreements between the US and Israel, following Mr Sharon's visit to Washington. Mr Bush's announcement that demographic realities have changed since Israel occupied the West Bank in 1967 implies a US recognition that Israeli settlements there can stand even if a two-state settlement is reached. He described Mr Sharon's proposals to withdraw from Gaza in return for such US undertakings as "historic and courageous". But Palestinian leaders have reacted angrily, saying such unilateral US-Israeli deals will undermine the internationally agreed road map towards a settlement.
These events underline how important and urgent it is to reassert international will on Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through the United Nations. That requires a readiness by other Security Council members to act against such US unilateralism in coming days and weeks. US policy and Iraqi realities seem worlds apart.