Public opinion in the United States is swinging against the Iraq war, according to an opinion poll, which found that 60 per cent oppose the war and the majority want to see a partial withdrawal of US troops by the end of the year. The same trend was seen in the Democratic Party primary this week in which an anti-war candidate defeated Senator Joe Lieberman, who has steadfastly supported it.
As leading US generals warn that civil war could be imminent in Iraq and prominent former office- holders worry that the crises there and in Lebanon are merging, they are set to become a major question in this year's congressional elections - just as more troops have been sent to Baghdad to combat a much higher level of violence.
Democratic leaders nationally are likely to support a withdrawal, distancing themselves from their previous qualified support for the war. The Connecticut primary saw a remarkable breakthrough by Ned Lamont against Mr Lieberman, who is seeking his third term in the Senate and was Al Gore's running-mate in the 2000 presidential election. His support for the Bush administration's position on the war, based on neo-conservative convictions about the Middle East, has proved too much for more left-wing Democrats and activists, who greeted Mr Lamont's victory with chants of "Bring them home". This has prompted Republican strategists to plan their campaign around their opponents' weakness on national security and inability to keep their political extremes in check. It remains to be seen what difference the thwarting of the terrorist plot in Britain this week makes to US public opinion.
Morgues in Baghdad handled 1,815 bodies in July, the great majority of them victims of violence. It is a barometer of more generalised bloodshed throughout the country, with little indication that extra US troops will be able to prevent it. The very fact of continuing occupation produces insurgency and resistance. And events in Lebanon, where the Bush administration has supported the elongation of Israel's war against Hizbullah, embolden the anti-US resistance in Iraq.
There are growing signs that the political parties making up Iraq's coalition government are becoming convinced of, or resigned to, the prospect of a radical decentralisation, even a partitioning of the country. They are convinced that it cannot be held together. There is increasing agreement that an indefinite occupation cannot be sustained. An agreed timetable for the withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq would strengthen the government's capacity to handle these issues and reduce the incentive to resist their presence.
The party which articulates such a strategy in the US could gain a decisive advantage in this election year. A cross-party commission behind the scenes chaired by a senior Republican, James Baker, could pre-empt such a political breaking of the ranks in the months to come by proposing a compromise formula for a pull-out, while proclaiming a victory.