WITH THE promise of protocols in the bag, campaigning proper for the second Lisbon referendum campaign can now begin. Strategists on both the Yes and No sides have long since pencilled in the last week in September or the first week in October as the likely date for a second vote.
The Government has not yet settled on a particular date. European leaders remain polite and supportive of the Irish position but they are now impatient to get Lisbon ratified as soon as possible. The Government, on the other hand, is focused on identifying a date which would enable sufficient time after the traditional
August holiday period to put in place an adequate campaign and a day of the week which would maximise turnout.
Whatever the date, it is already clear that the forces marshalling on either side of the Lisbon battle this time around are radically different than they were a year ago.
The fall of Declan Ganley means that the No side campaign has lost its most prominent general. The collapse of Libertas as a campaigning organisation has been as dramatic as its rise. It is hard to believe that it is only 12 months since Ganley was the centre of European media attention in Dublin Castle after the No vote and that it is only six months since the pomp and ceremony surrounding the opening of Libertas’s Brussels HQ. Had Ganley been more modest in his ambitions he could have leveraged the first referendum win to grow a small niche party here in Ireland. Vanity persuaded him instead to put his effort into a more grandiose strategy for Europe-wide victory and as a result his political ambitions went down in flames.
Ganley’s key political strengths were his money and his media management. For those of us who expressed concerns about the threat which private wealth could pose to our democratic system, it is reassuring to know that there are limitations to how far money and spin can get one in Irish politics.
Sinn Féin was the second most prominent component of the No side in the last Lisbon campaign. They too go back into the referendum field as walking wounded after the recent electoral contests.
Sinn Féin’s forces and resources are very much depleted. One of the strongest complaints of those councillors who have resigned from the party in the last couple of weeks was how little assistance they received from the national party in the local elections campaign.
It also doesn’t help that Sinn Féin’s main spokesperson on European issues is no longer an MEP. Mary Lou McDonald is now left without any office or mandate, other than the vice presidency of Sinn Féin which is an internal party position. The legal requirements that broadcasters give equal prominence to the arguments for both sides will again mean that there will be ample airtime for the No campaign but the slice going to Sinn Féin will be much smaller.
For this referendum the battle on the No side will fall back to
the cluster of far left and so-called peace movement groups which have traditionally campaigned against European referenda. Their most able advocate
Joe Higgins comes to this contest strengthened by his recent election as an MEP for Dublin.
He has already emerged as the effective leader of the No campaign.
True to his beliefs Higgins’s argument against the treaty is likely to focus primarily on workers’ rights and anti-capitalist concerns. While these are important issues for his core audience they don’t have the same broad appeal among the electorate as he himself enjoys. This time around voters can also expect to see and hear more of Patricia McKenna, whose wider appeal is also limited.
Both the Government and Opposition parties will run better campaigns this time around, but given the Government’s unpopularity and the generally reduced standing of our politicians there are limitations to the impact either can have.
The most important development on the Yes side has been the emergence of significant new civil society voices prepared to make the case for the Lisbon Treaty in a second referendum.
I wrote here some months ago that the second referendum could only be won if non-political forces took to the field in greater numbers. Even at that stage initial planning was being done by a number of people to put together an umbrella under which prominent personalities, sectoral interests and grassroot networks could come together to plan a more broadly based Yes campaign.
The extent to which these efforts have borne fruit is set to be revealed in the coming days. There are only about 15 weeks left to the likely polling day in the second Irish referendum on the Lisbon treaty.
Let the battle commence.