Whatever the outcome of tomorrow's referendum, it will not abate the numbers of Irish women who choose, for whatever reasons, to terminate a pregancy by abortion. In this sense it is an exercise in futility which will not alter reality in women's lives.
It is a paradox that so much passion and energy should be invested on behalf of the unborn in a state that is confronted daily with its failure to provide for the weakest and most vulnerable of its living. The elderly and dying are jostled about on hospital trolleys. The disabled and their helpers struggle for basic rights. The accident and emergency system is daily and nightly in crisis at the hospitals.
Those who pressured the Government to proceed with this referendum say that they reflect a deep-seated desire on the part of the people they represent to keep abortion out of Ireland. But if the campaign of recent weeks has shown anything, it is that public attitudes are very much more complex. What was presented as an attempt to secure a broad consensus has broken down under public debate.
Almost instinctively, most Irish people will declare themselves opposed to abortion. Yet last week's Irish Times/MRBI poll showed that 66 per cent of those surveyed believed it should be available in at least some circumstances in this State. The amendment, if passed, would limit these circumstances to cases in which there is a direct threat to the life of the mother, excluding the threat of suicide. But at bedrock, a great many people recognise that they might want the option of abortion for themselves, for their daughter, or sister or partner in circumstances that would fall outside this narrow category.
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A Yes vote would undoubtedly limit the availability of abortion in Ireland. For some, on the right, it would not go far enough. But as a declaration of principle, or of national values, it would please many. Irish women seeking abortions would continue to travel to Britain. Thus Ireland's time-honoured, hypocritical policy of pass-the-parcel would continue.
A No vote would cause the proposal to fall, obliging the Oireachtas to legislate with precision and openness, defining for the future the circumstances in which abortion might be permitted within Ireland. Framing such law would challenge the courage of our legislators. But it would be transparent and honest.
It is 10 years to the day since the judgment in the X case was handed down. By bizarre coincidence, the perpetrator in that case is to be sentenced again today having been convicted of another sexual assault - this time on a young woman of 15. Over the decade the legislators and the people of this State have bought into an indefensible fudge, refusing to accept Irish responsibility for an Irish problem.
A Yes vote tomorrow would extend the fudge, enshrining it in the Constitution. Ireland may wish to present itself as being "against abortion" and if Irish people are prepared to live with the very limited provisions of this amendment, they are at least being consistent. But the test is what would people want for their own families. If they can contemplate circumstances in which it might have to be an option - in case of rape or serious illness or a threat of suicide - then they must find the proposal wanting and vote No.