Where moral issues are concerned, opinion poll findings should be treated with a large dollop of caution, writes Denis Coghlan
Two weeks before the 1992 referendum, 48 per cent of the electorate said they would vote Yes to a proposition that would ban suicide as grounds for abortion. That figure fell to less than 35 per cent on polling day, while the No vote spectacularly increased from 30 to 65 per cent.
The most obvious conclusion to draw is that, because of religious and other considerations, many people lied to opinion pollsters about their voting intentions. If it happened 10 years ago, history can repeat itself next week.
That does not mean the positive findings of the Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll should be ignored and that the Government's referendum is heading for certain defeat. Even allowing for public dissimulation, new factors are at work that could save Bertie Ahern's blushes and rescue Fianna Fáil from a nascent nightmare.
The key difference is that voter turnout will probably be small on this occasion, in the absence of a general election campaign. As in the referendum on the Nice Treaty, it may be a struggle to get much beyond 30 per cent, compared to 65 per cent in 1992. Hard-core Yes supporters are expected be more motivated than their opponents in getting out to vote.
Activity by the Catholic Hierarchy is at a level not seen since the original abortion referendum in 1983. Bishops are pushing strongly for a Yes vote on this occasion while, in 1992 Desmond Connell, as Archbishop of Dublin, and a handful of rebel bishops sided with Des Hanafin and William Binchy and urged a No vote.
Back then, the formal advise was that Catholics could, in good conscience, vote Yes or No. This time, under Cardinal Connell's leadership, anything but a Yes vote is regarded as misguided and leaflets and pulpits are being used to get the faithful into line.
With less than two weeks to go, the gap between the Yes and No camps is tiny - at 4 percentage points - and is shrinking slowly. At the same time both the Yes and No camps are leaking support to the undecided category. The Yes camp is still marginally ahead, however, and appears to have stabilised its position.
The poll shows some interesting shifts in public opinion. Back in 1992, in the heated aftermath of the X case, 19 per cent of those questioned favoured abortion in all circumstances, compared to 9 per cent today. Some 54 per cent felt abortion was justified where the life of the mother was at risk or suicide threatened, compared to 57 per cent today. And the 20 per cent who opposed abortion in all circumstance has grown to 28 per cent.
Constitutional change and legislation allowing women the right to travel and a foreign abortion must be seen as relevant to the new situation. In the same way, the complexity of the current campaign is reflected by the fact that while 80 per cent of the No camp would support abortion in all or certain circumstances, a figure of 58 per cent of the Yes camp express similar sentiments.
This apparent confusion is reflected by the fact that exactly half of the electorate say they are only vaguely aware of the issues involved or don't understand them at all.
In their frustration - if they bother to come out and vote - they may turn on the Government. Some 79 per cent of those surveyed said they had not been adequately informed on the issues.
Supporters of political parties, in general, follow their leaders. Fianna Fáil is still the only party with a majority in favour of a Yes vote.
Since January, however, Fine Gael support has shifted towards the No camp as Michael Noonan made his position clear.
And the strong opposition once evident within the Progressive Democrats has altered to a more balanced approach in the aftermath of Mary Harney's endorsement. Labour Party supporters continue to drift towards the No camp as its campaign intensifies.
Opposition to the referendum is at its most intense in Dublin, where 41 per cent say they will vote No, compared to 23 per cent in favour. The situation is nearly reversed in Leinster and in Connacht/Ulster where 43 and 42 per cent support the proposal, with 27 and 21 per cent opposed. Munster divides 36 to 30 per cent in favour.
On the basis of those figures, any party that can swing the very large and growing don't know category to their side will win. Within that framework, voter turnout in Dublin will be critical for the No campaign. And a simple thing like bad, wet weather could dash the hopes of Yes campaigners in rural areas.
Denis Coghlan is Chief Political Correspondent of The Irish Times