Efforts to increase sanctions on Iran for non-compliance with UN Security Council resolutions on its suspected nuclear weapons programme have been frustrated by the refusal of leading states to go along with them. Yesterday Russian leader Vladimir Putin said more patience is needed to test Iran's policy by diplomatic means, along the lines of the successful negotiations with North Korea. In parallel European Union foreign ministers rejected calls by France, supported by Germany and Britain, to apply unilateral EU sanctions should the United Nations process fail. But Iran's continued resistance may yet provoke a harder response. It has yet to prove its programme is for nuclear energy only.
For nearly two years France, Germany and Britain, representing other EU states, have been talking to Iran about securing compliance with UN demands that it should cease enriching uranium capable of producing a nuclear weapon. They have been continually frustrated in that quest by Iranian prevarication and are now willing to support stronger sanctions to force the issue. These states know Iran is using the delay to reinforce the nuclear programme, all the while denying it has a military objective. They are also fully aware that failure to resolve the issue bolsters the resolve of hardliners in the Bush administration to prepare a possible military strike against Iran before they leave office next year.
Diplomatic progress is the only way to ensure this does not happen. Iran's agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency in August to stagger its reports on compliance with UN policy against nuclear weapons angered the EU group; but Iran must report on this work plan by next month. It will have to show definite movement on declaring and accounting for its nuclear resources by then if it is to head off a likely consensus at the Security Council that it should be sanctioned.
Mr Putin has an incentive during his current visit to Tehran to probe whether it is willing to comply in this way. He has some bargaining capacity because of Russia's huge investment and trade interests there, balanced against his own desire to contain Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions in tandem with the Security Council group. The search for banking, trade and investment sanctions by the US is meanwhile gathering pace.
Iran has been regionally empowered by the disastrous US war in neighbouring Iraq. Its security, political and economic needs must be taken seriously by those negotiating with it. But that requirement demands a reciprocal response from its leaders in coming weeks.