The findings of the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll, influenced by revelations from the Moriarty and Flood tribunals and the Dail Public Accounts Committee, indicate a growing level of disillusionment with the Coalition Government. At the same time, however, a majority of respondents indicate their continuing support for Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats, should a general election be held tomorrow. As a snapshot of public opinion as the Government reaches mid-term, it is a relatively reassuring report, particularly where Fianna Fail is concerned. That party attracts a support level of 47 per cent, compared to 4 per cent for the Progressive Democrats. It would seem that Fianna Fail and particularly the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, are not suffering unduly for the misdeeds of Mr Charles Haughey and members of previous governments.
Several opportunities exist for the Government to improve on this support over the coming months. Details of a six-year National Plan will be unveiled next week; agreement on a new social partnership contract would redound to the Government's credit, as would a breakthrough in Northern Ireland through the implementation of the Belfast Agreement. These are all potentially positive developments. But should the tribunals disclose material directly implicating members of the Government in wrongdoing, the Coalition arrangement could quickly unravel.
Opportunities are not confined to Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats. For the first time since the formation of the Government in 1997, voter dissatisfaction, at 47 per cent, exceeds satisfaction levels, at 46 per cent. This slim margin of negativity should not disguise the fact that, in five months, satisfaction with the Government has slipped by 12 points. The opposition parties will focus on this gap in the Government's armour as they prepare to sell their own vision of the future and chip away at the Coalition's credibility. Fine Gael, with a support base of 23 per cent, has failed to capitalise on the Government's difficulties and has even lost a small amount of ground since last June. The Labour Party, at 14 per cent in the polls and with a win in the Dublin South Central by-election behind it, will hope to return to the growth track that gave it an electoral breakthrough in 1992. In the same light, Sinn Fein at 4 per cent, will hope to build its support base and be in a position to gain a number of Dail seats in the next election. However, with 20 per cent of respondents uncertain about their voting intentions, the level of potential volatility is considerable.
The desire of the electorate to be consulted about Ireland's membership of Partnership for Peace (PfP) by way of a referendum, has remained constant during the last six months, in spite of the Government's determination to ratify entry through a Dail vote. Sixty-eight per cent of those questioned favour holding a referendum, compared to 71 per cent last May. At the same time, 57 per cent indicate they would vote in favour of PfP, compared to 62 per cent on the last occasion. Those opposed to PfP amounted to 17 and 18 per cent, respectively. In the present climate, where politicians are not held in high regard, the Government would have done a service to democracy and solidly underpinned our commitment to the NATO-sponsored Partnership for Peace programme of military co-operation in Europe, by consulting the people in a referendum.