The Belfast Agreement inched towards another period of grave instability yesterday when Northern Ireland's First Minister, Mr David Trimble, asked the British Government to table a motion at the Northern Assembly, seeking the exclusion of Sinn Féin from the power-sharing Executive.
Should that not happen, Mr Trimble has indicated he and his ministers will resign. His initiative followed an announcement by Mr Peter Robinson and Mr Nigel Dodds of the Democratic Unionist Party that their membership of the Executive will end on Friday.
The First Minister is operating under intense pressure. Forces within the Ulster Unionist Party, suspicious of Sinn Féin's intentions from the beginning, have lost confidence in the ability of the Belfast Agreement to deliver the kind of society envisaged more than four years ago. The alleged intelligence-gathering activities of republicans, which came to light last week, merely confirmed their views.
As might be expected, differing views exist within Northern Ireland and between the two Governments on what should be done at this time. Further discussions will take place today between the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair and the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern. Meetings are also planned between Mr Blair and the leader of the SDLP, Mr Mark Durkan, and with the Sinn Féin president, Mr Gerry Adams.
At this stage, it seems unlikely that a British Government motion seeking the exclusion of Sinn Féin will be proposed to the Assembly next week. With an election due within seven months, such a proposal would be unlikely to secure cross-community support.
Instead, the British Government may opt to suspend the institutions and seek to create space in which progress can be made. In spite of a succession of political crises, the four-year old Belfast Agreement has proved to be remarkably resilient. Suspensions and reviews have permitted the governments to assist the political process and to chart a way forward.
Last year, four outstanding issues - policing, demilitarisation, the stability of the Northern institutions and decommissioning - were addressed. In spite of prevarication and resistance, significant progress was made. Some IRA weapons were put beyond use. The Police Service of Northern Ireland was established. The SDLP took part in the Policing Board. The demilitarisation process continued cautiously. But it was not enough. The hoped-for stability did not materialise.
At this stage, the various parties are focused on the coming elections and there is little chance they will display the kind of flexibility required to inject early vigour into the Agreement. In such circumstances, the two Governments must hold the line and ensure that the desire of the people on this island for peace, equality and power-sharing - emphatically stated in separate referendums - is not jeopardised.