The fall of Ahern, the loss of Lisbon and talk of recession have left us reeling and confused, writes Elaine Byrne
IF SHE had not died, Elisabeth Kübler-Ross would have celebrated her birthday last Tuesday. This was the same day that the Government announced its two-year €1.44 billion "public spending measures" (also known as savings, cutbacks or cost-cutting plans).
Kübler-Ross's 1969 seminal book On Death and Dying outlined the human experience of loss, universally recognised as the "five stages of grief". Her groundbreaking work can help provide context for events in Irish public life over the last three months. The five stages of grief are denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. Grief is an individual journey. Some do not experience all five stages while others revisit or get stuck on certain parts of this process. This is not a linear progression. The phases are not necessarily equal in their duration or in their intensity. Growing up in a funeral-undertaking family, the grief cycle was a regular part of our lives.
Initially, there is denial. Shocked by the loss, disbelief induces paralysis and a refusal to accept facts. This is a perfectly natural defence mechanism. Anger, the second phase, presents itself in different ways. Frustrated and exasperated, people seek to place blame. The bargaining phase is the attempt to find a way of avoiding reality and the vain hope that the bad news is reversible. Depression is the reluctant dress rehearsal of acceptance. Despondent at the inevitable, regret and uncertainty set in. Finally, there is acceptance. The ability to rationalise and take ownership allows agreement to find a way forward.
There are different types of grief. Though most often associated with death, grief is a term used to describe the effect of any intense loss. In the last three months alone, Ireland has experienced three such unprecedented losses.
In May, the most popular taoiseach of the modern era tendered his resignation amid mounting pressure about his personal finances. In June, the political parties which won almost 90 per cent of the vote in the previous general election lost the Lisbon referendum. In July, the Government announced dramatic public spending measures in response to the sharp economic downturn.
When historians come to examine this extraordinary three-month period in Irish public life, they may well find parallels in how we reacted to each crisis. Let's call it the DAB (Denial-Anger-Bargaining) phenomenon, after the first three grief stages.
For example, in his own words, Bertie Ahern "done no wrong and wronged no one" (denial). It has been implied that the tribunals and the media were to blame (anger). And anyway, it appears he won some of the money on the horses (classic bargaining).
The pro-Lisbon supporters assumed the public understood and supported the treaty. As one observer crossly suggested, its rejection was due to a "motley crew of ageing Marxists, anti-globalisation protesters, traditional Eurosceptics, and obsessive sovereigntists". Right now, we are reflecting (or bargaining) on how best to credibly introduce a second Lisbon referendum.
The recession is not Armageddon, but as the Taoiseach said on Tuesday, merely economic growth "lower than anticipated" due to the collapse in the global subprime market and the remarkable fall in international oil and food prices. Some commentators have placed the blame squarely with the Irish banking sector because of their aggressive lending policies, while others believe the Government was at fault for introducing extravagant property tax breaks. The Taoiseach has in a sense negotiated with us that the "short course adjustments" of €1.44 billion will ensure a "return to our potential growth rate of 4 per cent".
The Irish psyche is not so good on the acceptance stage.
In the public mind, things will get better in September when the kids go back to school and everything returns to normal once more. Dazed and confused, we do not yet fully comprehend all that has happened. This is simply something we will "get over" without any permanent consequences. This is just the silly season being silly. A passing phase and, like the weather, things will pick up eventually.
In years to come, the 2008 edition of the popular RTÉ television programme Reeling in the Years will feature the lyrics of Sharon Shannon and Mundy's Galway Girl: "We were halfway there when the rain came down, On a day -I-ay-I-ay." We will look back at the Ahern-Lisbon-economy triangle that dominated our lives that wet summer.
All three events have now morphed into one another. The last three months have been a seamless transition without us quite realising the extent of their individual significance. We have not yet had the time, the most important part of a grieving process, to come to terms with the consequences of what has actually happened. We need breathing space (or reflection, as it's also called). The nature of events has dictated reaction and the DAB phenomenon has predominated.
With just 173 days left in the year, fingers crossed that things only happen in threes.