"The extreme south and south-east will be cloudy at times with a risk of some showers. Otherwise it will be dry until Tuesday with good sunny spells each day". This outlook for the holiday weekend was issued by Met Eireann at 1520 on Friday last. Its authors may have been surprised by how influential and authoritative their forecasts are regarded, after it was proved so disastrously wrong for much of the country. Holidaymakers, farmers, ferry travellers, yachtsmen, residents of Clonmel, parents and children were among those most affected as the low pressure belt, forecast to bypass Ireland, moved 50 miles north and treated the south-east and east of the country to some of its most dismal summer weather for years. One is reminded of that other dismal science, economics, whose forecasts are often unfavourably compared with those of the meteorologists. As Shaw remarked, if all the economists in the world were laid end to end they would not reach a conclusion. Both disciplines command attention because their respective objects of inquiry are of so much public interest. Forecasting is hazardous at the best of times, even with the aid of computers. On this occasion, Met Eireann pleads forgiveness for misinterpreting the likely direction of this low pressure belt and for their belief that the ridge of high pressure would produce good sunny spells each day.
Most of us have little option but to accept the explanation, although some of the economists might be forgiven for the punitive thought that privatisation might correct the lack of competition and accountability among our weather forecasters. The anarchy of the market could then address the chaos of the heavens. But farmers and flood victims seem disinclined to accept their fate. Farming leaders say that if they had known there was a possibility of such a downpour they would have redoubled their efforts to get in their crops. It is not clear they could claim against Met Eireann but they are well able to make demands on the Government. So are those afflicted by flooding in Clonmel and other towns - and they have valid precedents to do so.
The issue of insurance comes to the fore here. Legally this is a murky area, underdeveloped in the Irish market. In spite of the inherent volatility of Irish weather patterns, more and more decisions in the farming sector are likely to depend on forecasting at critical times of the year. Whether this can be developed towards a more insurable system, remains to be seen. It has certainly become a major issue in Poland, the Czech Republic and eastern Germany after the dramatic flooding there over the last month. This is the greatest natural disaster to have hit these economies for decades. The case for compensation and emergency relief is overwhelming and urgent, but there is minimal insurance provision. Aid has been forthcoming from Bonn and the European Commission in Brussels for the Germans affected. But the damage has been even greater east of the Oder and has not been matched by anything like equivalent compensation, despite the fact that these countries will become members of the EU early next century. Our own sufferings are put into perspective by this greater disaster, whose seriousness is easier to comprehend after the heavy rains that fell on Munster and south Leinster over the weekend.