Beyond the Western Development Commission's new report, even bleaker facts may reside, writes Tim O'Brien, Regional Development Correspondent.
The Western Development Commission (WDC) submission to Government published yesterday warns of a region characterised by poor access, single-carriageway roads, inferior telecommunications and inadequate energy supplies.
But depressing as the forecast is, the reality may be worse. In a section of the report outlining the weaknesses of the region - a reliance on traditional manufacturing, farming and the construction industry - the WDC points out the region nevertheless has "key strengths".
Chief among these is its manufacturing of "high-tech medical devices". But just last month, Peter Walsh, vice-president of global giant Medtronic Vascular, told a conference of engineers in Dublin that this industry is "bypassing eastern Europe and going straight to Mexico and Asia". The industry in Ireland employs some 50,000 people, and the west has been successful in attracting clusters of medical device manufacturing companies.
The relocation of this industry to lower-cost economies was something Mr Walsh said we need to think about "because there is no doubt about it, it will happen". Mr Walsh revealed that, since his latest appointment, he has "moved 1,000 jobs out of Ireland".
In this regard, the WDC report can hardly be said to be exaggerating the situation facing the west.
Although couched in politically acceptable language, the report is stark in its assessment of prospects, particularly for the rural north of the region - Roscommon, Leitrim, Sligo, Donegal, and much of Co Galway. The report notes special ring-fenced funding available to the Border Midlands and Western (BMW) region under the current National Development Plan is set to end this year.
The next National Development Plan - for 2007 to 2013 - will not contain separate operational programmes for the BMW and southern and eastern regions. There is to be just one plan for the whole State.
And while there have been improvements in the economy of the region over the last seven years, the prosperity gap between the dominant east coast and the west has widened. Much of the boom in the northwest has been fuelled by construction and upper Shannon rural tax reliefs. These are now ending.
Educational services in the west are good, but graduates are not being retained in the region.
The Central Statistics Office is predicting a population rise to five million in the State by 2021 - an increase of 29 per cent on the 2002 census. The Greater Dublin Area with its creaking infrastructure is expected to account for nearly half the increase.
It is obvious the aim of balanced regional development remains elusive. Equally obviously, the State cannot rely on its spatial development strategy alone to provide economic development in the west; positive discrimination is necessary.
The WDC has sensibly pointed out that encouraging development in the west benefits both the east and the west. "If the west is to be part of the knowledge economy, there is need for a nationally-led initiative focused on the north of the region," it said. Such an initiative should focus on the knowledge, innovation, skills and applied research needs of sectors in the region. In this way, companies such as those involved in medical devices can move up the value chain developing sustainable jobs based on the "knowledge economy", according to the WDC.
But some basic infrastructure is still needed. This includes upgrading the telecommunications infrastructure to ensure broadband is freely available; ensuring energy supplies are in place; ensuring that the State continues to support regional airports which have international access; preventing the decline of the region's rail network; building motorways between regional cities as well as between cities and Dublin. In fact, all the things promised under the current National Development Plan.