The world is shrinking. The same trends - social, technological, political and economic - are increasingly at play in every country. Nowhere is this more the case than in western Europe's mature democracies, writes Dan O'Brien
In our calm corner of the world, war among neighbours is all but inconceivable and the big, divisive social and constitutional issues are mostly settled. This is the age of the politics of contentment. The reasons for its rise are many and the manner of its conduct varied.
The growing middle-class majority: The established democracies have enjoyed 60 years of rising prosperity, improving access to education and widening opportunities. As a result, old-fashioned class divisions have blurred to the point of meaninglessness. A growing majority has come to share the same basic characteristics and aspirations.
The listening imperative: Political parties have had to adapt to the expanding middle class's more sophisticated tastes and more assertively expressed demands. Today's voters demand deference and humility from politicians, not vice versa, and despite the current faddish obsession with leadership, modern politicians must be better at listening than leading.
The gauging of the zeitgeist: In order to generate ideas that appeal to voters, political parties need to be able to gauge the collective mood at any given time and understand what people want of government and the state. While intuitively interpreting the zeitgeist remains the essential art of politics, the science of understanding voters' hearts and minds is evolving rapidly. Focus groups and detailed and extensive polling have become indispensable tools of political parties.
The feminisation of politics: Today there is no country in western Europe in which public services have not come to dominate elections. This has changed the characteristics and skills that make for success in politics. While politicians continue to need to show toughness and resolve, projecting power and strength is less important today as the focus of government is more about the provision of services.
It's about more than the economy, stupid: It is no coincidence that the slogan "the economy, stupid" was coined in the US where the state is far less involved in the provision of services than in Europe. On this side of the Atlantic, sound economic management is, of course, a central issue, but not quite as dominating. Recent elections across the Continent prove that success at the polls is about more than the state of the economy.
The end of ideology: In the realm of ideas, nothing has changed politics more than the demise of left-right ideology. The failures of state-centred socialism and the limits of the market in providing social services and economic stability are accepted by the moderate centre. There is no longer any serious intellectual debate about the need for both efficient markets and an effective state to make societies successful. To a considerable extent the new pragmatism is nothing more than political parties catching up with ordinary folk (most people have always been perfectly happy to hold, simultaneously, views considered both left wing and right wing).
The rise and rise of evidence-based policymaking: One of the consequences of the end of ideology (as well as being one of the reasons for its demise) is a shift towards formulating policy on the basis of evidence about what works. On health, education, transport and crime, policy formulation has never been so sophisticated. Think tanks, academic institutions and international organisations are increasingly the sources of solutions to the problems of modern society. The internationalisation of thinking on policy continues apace.
The phenomenon of rational ignorance: There are downsides to the more scientific approach to policymaking. It is esoteric, detailed and complex. Evaluation of policies requires a degree of expertise that even today's educated voters don't have. Moreover, voters are reluctant to devote hours to the study and evaluation of alternative policies which usually differ more in nuance than substance. This "rational ignorance" is perhaps the central concept in understanding how voters choose parties and how parties target voters today.
The centrality of spin: Rational ignorance leaves voters needing shortcuts when weighing up their options at election time. Though "spin" is often derided, it is really just a means of communicating succinctly and concisely what parties are offering voters. But spin not only informs about specific policies; it has become a proxy for measuring political parties' general ability and competence. Voters calculate that if a party is not adept at selling itself, it is probably incapable of governing effectively.
The politics of contentment may be only a passing phase, but its rules apply in Ireland for the moment at least. Next year's election will share many of the features of contests in other democracies. And, as is the case elsewhere, those who can best gauge what voters want - and prove their competence in providing it - are likely to come out on top.
Dan O'Brien is a senior editor at the Economist Intelligence Unit in London
John Waters is on leave