Whither the main Opposition parties in the wake of the general election? Since 1989, a Fianna Fáil-led coalition has almost become the political norm, for the party has been in government for all but two and a half years in that time. The party's change of mind on coalition in 1989 represents one of the most remarkable, and indeed successful, policy U-turns in its history.
From its foundation in 1926 to 1989, Fianna Fáil had always opposed coalition and, for two out of every three of those years, it had served as a single-party government. But by 2012, Fianna Fáil will have been in power for some 21 of the previous 23 years in coalition administrations.
Successful coalition-making has become one of Mr Ahern's defining achievements as Taoiseach. He has made a Fianna Fáil-led coalition seem like the natural political order. And he has also shown that coalitions can and do work, both by what they have achieved in office and by their stability in lasting two full five-year terms.
Yet the contrast between the earlier de Valera era, and now, could hardly be greater. At election time then, Fianna Fáil against the rest was the official party mantra. Voters were promised stable single party Fianna Fáil government, while being warned of the risks of coalition instability under a "makeshift majority" as Séan Lemass once said. Coalition was then a wholly alien concept. "No coalition" was a core value of the party, an article of its political faith, and one of its defining characteristics. But, pragmatism replaced principle in 1989, when the core value was jettisoned without too much intellectual agonising, or indeed conscience wrestling. Charles Haughey and Fianna Fáil embraced coalition with the Progressive Democrats as the price of power.
From a position where Fianna Fáil, in its pre-coalition days, had spent one third of its time in opposition and two thirds in power, the party has now done even better.Since 1989,the party has spent nearly all its time in government. And this prospect of Fianna Fáil in power in perpetuity, pausing only to change its minor partner (or partners) in government, is the spectre that now haunts the opposition benches. And it deserves to be carefully considered. What may be good for Fianna Fáil is in fact very bad for Irish democracy. Rotation does not amount to a change of government.
Fine Gael and Labour watched this week as the Greens joined Fianna Fáil in government. These parties now face a daunting challenge to build on the advances they have made in the election campaign. How they manage to meet that challenge in the next five years will determine whether they can break Fianna Fáil's iron grip on power.
Parliamentary opposition cannot become merely a training ground for the smaller parties, where Labour, the PDs, the Greens, or indeed Sinn Féin, serve their political apprenticeship before joining Fianna Fáil, as the semipermanent party in government. The main Opposition parties are now emasculated. How to break free is their big challenge.