Winning a third term is a huge achievement for Bertie Ahern

The sense of expectation was palpable at the main RDS Simmonscourt Pavilion at one minute to nine yesterday morning, writes Noel…

The sense of expectation was palpable at the main RDS Simmonscourt Pavilion at one minute to nine yesterday morning, writes Noel Whelan.

Hundreds of tallymen and tallywomen were perched at the barriers, leaning in as far as it was possible to do without intruding on the personal space of the members of the returning officer's staff assigned to each table.

There was much light-hearted banter between the tally crews from the different parties before the off. Some of the talk was about how fortunate they were that the vision of Noel Dempsey and Martin Cullen for the electronification of the count had not been realised.

There was also much discussion of the RTÉ/Lansdowne Market Research exit poll reported on Morning Ireland. Fianna Fáilers were excited that it looked as if they were going to get a vote on a par with that achieved in 2002.

READ MORE

Shrewd observers who had absorbed the regional breakdown of the exit poll were extrapolating what it might mean for their particular Dublin constituencies.

Fine Gael tallymen were happy that the exit poll confirmed a rise in their vote but were disappointed that it appeared to be just under 4 per cent. They were hoping that the poll was either flawed or that the projected vote share of 26.3 per cent might still trickle down in a way that would give them a seat bounce.

Tallymen for the Labour Party looked particularly worried at the fact that the exit poll was suggesting not just that Fianna Fáil was holding its own and Fine Gael was rising with hopes for Labour gains not materialising, but that many of its existing seats were precarious.

The tally operation is designed to run with military precision. Those at the barriers glanced down along each paper quickly as it was unfolded, spotting the candidate beside whom number one was marked and reflecting this on their clipboards.

When they had the sheet for each box completed, they handed it to a runner who took it to the bank of laptops where the chief tallymen were overseeing the inputting of data so that summary figures could be generated after the first 100 ballot boxes had been opened and at 100- box intervals thereafter.

Even before there was enough data to send back to the laptops, one could get a real sense of what was happening. Experienced tally crews - many of whom were hovering over the tables for the same polling station five years ago - knew instinctively whether and to what extent the vote had shifted up and down for their candidate or party in each box.

Some of the Fianna Fáil tallymen in places such as Dublin South Central and Dublin North West, who were relieved their vote had held up, could not contain their smiles. Tallymen for Sinn Féin in places such as Dublin North West and Dublin Central could immediately see their party was having a disappointing day.

For the rest of the morning a steady stream of printouts in the RDS and elsewhere graphed the rise and fall of political careers. Before lunchtime in television and radio studios, the tallies flowing in from all over the country revealed a story even more dramatic than that first apparent in the RDS.

Not only was Fianna Fáil comfortably going to hold seats that had wrongly been seen as vulnerable, the party was going to be in contention to gain additional seats. In commuter-belt constituencies, where Fine Gael and Labour claimed the mood for change was reflected on the doorsteps, not only was Fianna Fáil going to hold its own but the party was actually going to pick up extra seats in Meath East and Kildare North.

Another twist was that Fianna Fáil's success would not be achieved by containing the Fine Gael rise because Fine Gael was also going to have a very good day. It was the smaller parties - all of them - who would be squeezed.

The collapse of the Progressive Democrats' vote had been predicted as had the non-realisation of a Green surge. However, it was not foreseen that sitting Green Party deputies would be in a struggle to hold their seats. A stop was also put to Sinn Féin's gallop and much of its rhetoric silenced. The supposedly inevitable march of the party south of the Border met the force of the modern Fianna Fáil machine.

The scale of the Fianna Fáil success became truly apparent after a series of first count announcements between 5pm and 6pm. Fianna Fáil Ministers were being elected with astronomical first-preference votes.

It took many more hours - and will take some more still - for the precise picture of what, if any, additional support outside his expanded parliamentary party Bertie Ahern will require to maintain a stable majority. That he can put a working durable government together and lead it for as long as he wants is now beyond doubt.

The story of Election Day 2007 was apparent from 7am when the exit poll was published. When the various count announcements confirmed what the exit poll and tallies suggested, the media began to move on to explore the reasons for the result. There will be time enough for that in the weeks to come.

For now it is appropriate to recognise what Bertie Ahern has done. His has been a truly striking achievement in modern politics - a third term as Taoiseach.