EMPLOYMENT PEAKED in late 2007 when over two million people were at work in a booming economy. Since then the rate of decline has been steep – a 16 per cent drop in the numbers employed – while the adjustments have been sharp and painful in both human and financial terms.
But as yet there are few convincing signs that the worst is indeed over. The CSO, in its Quarterly National Household Survey, offers little encouragement. Job figures for July–September show, on a seasonally adjusted basis, a fall in employment five times larger than that in the preceding quarter, with 20,500 fewer people at work. It represents the biggest quarterly drop in two years. So dramatic a reversal and so quickly – in just three months – is a worrying development; in particular, given the uncertain global economic outlook in 2012.
A breakdown by sector presents a depressing picture. In the July-September quarter, agriculture, food and the fishing industry was the most adversely affected group. The sector, which lost 5,000 jobs, has seen employment decline by almost a third in 2½ years. Likewise, the “financial, insurance and real estate” sector recorded similar job losses in the quarter. However, no part of the economy has been hit harder by recession than construction. There, employment has shrunk from 272,000 at the peak of the boom to 107,500 – a 60 per cent decline. Nevertheless, this sector does show some signs that employment has stabilised, by recording a modest increase in those at work. For the construction sector the adjustment in employment numbers may well be over; for others – such as the banks and the public sector – job losses are unavoidable in the months ahead. The major banks have yet to outline their redundancy programmes in response to greatly reduced operations, while the public sector is facing further employment losses in 2012.
What is very clear is that no part of the economy has escaped the adverse impact of the downturn. Each sector provides depressing evidence of the scale of the jobs crisis. Certainly, export-led growth has helped, in some measure, to offset the contraction in employment in the rest of the economy. But, given the uncertainties that surround the euro, increased signs of investor nervousness and weaker demand in a deteriorating global economy, Ireland’s reliance on export-led growth for economic recovery is called into question.
One matter of particular concern in the jobless figures is the increased number of those out of work for over a year. In the third quarter, the long-term unemployed accounted for over half the total. Two years ago, one in four of the unemployed was in that category. Those in long-term unemployment also find it hardest to regain employment when economic recovery comes. Another matter of equal concern must be the high rate of unemployment in the youngest age group. Joblessness is highest among 15 to 19-year-olds, where 39 per cent were out of work in the latest quarter. A figure that suggests the youngest are carrying the heaviest burden of the jobs crisis deserves more critical public scrutiny and urgent attention from the Government.