Whither Russian reform? The question has become more pressing in recent days following President Yeltsin's broadcast last week in which he denounced the government's policy failings and his decision yesterday to dismiss it. The prime minister, Mr Viktor Chernomyrdin, and the new first deputy prime minister, Mr Anatoly Chubais, will form the core of the new cabinet. These appointments give a firm indication of the policy direction that will be followed. But it is no guarantee that the disastrous maladministration of recent years will be put right to the satisfaction of the millions of ordinary Russians who have no time for Mr Chubais after the failures of the privatisation programmes when he was previously in charge of the reform programme in 1991-6.
In his speech, Mr Yeltsin provided a damning catalogue of economic underachievement, stagnant industrial production, soaring levels of crime, extensive corruption, low military morale and the disastrous failure to pay so many layers of manual and white-collar workers. As he said, a general strike planned for later this month over the non-payment of wages will highlight these issues and could prove to be a real catalyst of change. Mr Yeltsin is concerned to have a new government in place that will be capable of making concessions to head off these protests.
His decision to move Mr Chubais from his presidential staff to the government has been greeted with shocked disbelief by the powerful communist bloc in the state Duma and with evident hostility in popular opinion. Mr Chubais is well-recognised as the primary architect of market reform and as the man responsible for issuing the voucher system of shares in privatisation schemes, which went so badly wrong when most people failed to benefit from them in any way. There is speculation that housing, pensions, state monopolies and military changes will be on the agendas of the next reform programme. Although market changes have made big strides in selected sectors of the Russian economy, the overall programme has been disastrously mishandled. This is despite the fact that it still has - miraculously - the positive support of most sections of the population, as was evidenced by Mr Yeltsin's re-election.
It remains to be seen whether a new administration will be capable of reorganising the reforms and cleaning up the corrupt manner of their implementation. Mr Yeltsin himself impressed observers by the firm tone and delivery of his speech last week. It has also been somewhat miraculous that the government has been able to rule in his absence through sickness for most of the last eight months, largely under Mr Chernomyrdin's direction. The appointment yesterday of the inexperienced journalist, Mr Valentin Yumachev, as chief of staff in his presidential office to replace Mr Chubais may signal a change in the style of his rule and a readiness to give more leeway to the new government, despite the extensive powers the president enjoys under the constitution. But this remains unclear, like so much else in Mr Yeltsin's Kremlinology.