Yes vote good for us and central Europe

Poland's transformation from a socialist, centrally-planned economy to a democracy and free market was precipitated by three …

Poland's transformation from a socialist, centrally-planned economy to a democracy and free market was precipitated by three key, internationally witnessed, events: Pope John Paul II's visit in 1979, the foundation and actions of the Solidarity movement in the Gdansk shipyard and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.

These were the focal points by which the wider community charted Poland's determined and successful move to democracy and to the development of a market economy.

Since then the key objective of Polish foreign policy has been to copper-fasten this new-found freedom and realise Poland's full economic potential.

Joining NATO was an important step in achieving the security arrangements necessary to protect the new democracy. Joining the EU will be an equally important step for the economy.

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The referendum on the Nice Treaty gives the people of Ireland an opportunity to support the people of Poland and acknowledge their remarkable political and economic achievements over the last 20 years.

Endorsing the treaty's proposed changes to EU institutions will make the accession of Poland and other central European countries possible. Of course I have some personal interest and experience on this particular issue. AIB now has over 10,000 employees and 450 branches in Poland - more than we have in Ireland and Britain together. EU entry for Poland will obviously benefit AIB but my reasons for voting yes on June 7th are much broader than that.

As head of AIB's Poland division for nearly two years and having been closely involved with AIB's growing Polish investment for many years before that, I have had many opportunities to see and be impressed by the economic potential of Poland and the character of its people. Its entry to the EU is well deserved and vital for a number of reasons.

EU enlargement is first and foremost about securing democracy in central Europe. Unless we offer the prospect of increasing prosperity within the EU to the people of the applicant countries, we will run the risk of serious instability on the eastern border of the European Union. While this may appear remote to us, the distance from Dublin to Warsaw is about the same as New York to Miami.

Here, we have tended to view the advantages of EU membership solely in terms of the net transfer of funds. But the fact that we are likely to become net financial contributors to the EU post-2006 does not mean that the advantages of membership are at an end; the dynamic benefits are of vital importance.

The inflow of foreign direct investment, mostly from the US, has been central to our outstanding economic performance. These companies invest here because we are part of a large European single market. The 12 candidate countries have a combined population of over 100 million; their inclusion in the EU will enlarge the single market of 375 million people, which will significantly enhance the attractions of this market as the new accession countries develop. Ireland, as the preferred beachhead for US foreign direct investment in Europe, will benefit hugely.

While Poland is one of the most successful of the economies in transition, there still is a long road to travel. It has a population of 38.7 million people. Per capita GDP is about 40 per cent of the EU average. Poland is less exposed to foreign trade than Ireland; its imports are about two-thirds those of Ireland and its exports are less than 40 per cent of ours. About one-quarter of the population is still engaged in agriculture, producing 5 per cent of GDP. Clearly it will not be possible to apply the full support of the Common Agricultural Policy to Polish agriculture without appropriate transitional arrangements to keep the costs within reasonable bounds.

However, Ireland's experience - with GDP per capita rising from 60 per cent of the EU average in 1973 to above the average today - is testament to the progress that can be made inside the EU.

Some fear that the revised institutional arrangements under the Nice Treaty will erode Irish influence due to the revised voting strengths. This is too pessimistic. Irish negotiators have succeeded in maintaining Irish representation in all the EU institutions until membership reaches 27. After that we will still have equal representation in the Commission to other member-states.

Indeed, our experience in the EU indicates that our influence is related more to our intellectual contribution than the small number of votes we have.

During my time in Poland, I came to admire and respect the history, culture and traditions of the country, and more importantly, the quality of its young people. They are well-educated, hard-working and seeking to better themselves. They are a very important potential addition to the intellectual capital of the EU. They are the reason I will be voting yes on June 7th.

Tomorrow

Lt-Gen Gerry McMahon, former chief-of-staff of the Defence Forces, argues the case for a Yes vote, while John Maguire, the author of a book on neutrality, puts the case against.