THE POWERSHARING agreement signed in Harare yesterday is undoubtedly a major step forward for Zimbabwe, but it does not conclusively resolve the country's deep political crisis.
The distribution of power between President Robert Mugabe, Morgan Tsvangirai, the new prime minister, and Arthur Mutanbara, is an institutional mess, leaving plenty of room for ongoing rivalry between their parties and ministers. If the conflict simply continues in a different format Zimbabwe will not get the international aid essential for recovery from economic collapse, despite the goodwill this agreement will generate.
The decision to accept powersharing and the effort put into mediating it by southern African leaders should be recognised as a constructive achievement after last March's divisive general elections and Mr Mugabe's unopposed victory in June's presidential poll, from which Mr Tsvangirai withdrew after a vicious round of violence left 200 dead and 200,000 people displaced.
Mr Mugabe's willingness to bring his rivals into government recognises that it has become impossible to rule alone; but the grudging tone of his remarks yesterday about the opposition and talk by his intimates of having to deal now with the enemy within show scant signs of reconciliation or newfound trust. Mr Tsvangirai was much more hopeful, based on his conviction that the share-out of ministries will enable his party to begin the process of economic and political recovery.
The 31 posts have yet to be filled, however. And the cumbersome new structure in which Mr Tsvangirai's council of ministers will oversee Mr Mugabe's cabinet leaves the line of accountability quite uncertain. Control of the police, army and intelligence agencies is to be divided, but rivalries are likely to continue since Mr Mugabe will not relinquish such core elements of his regime. And it is not yet clear whether Mr Tsvangirai will be able to overhaul economic policy as radically as is necessary even if his party controls the relevant ministries. International credit lines and a relaxation of sanctions will be needed for that, and such creditors will have to be convinced.
With inflation running at 30 million per cent, mass unemployment, empty shops, four million of its people in flight to neighbouring states and the collapse of agriculture, Zimbabwe is a failed state after 28 years of rule by Mugabe's Zanu-PF party. Most of the damage has been done over the last 10 years. This agreement can be a turning point, but only if it enables genuine change.