After months of Russian assaults in the east of Ukraine, the war is at a pivotal moment.
Russia has poured resources into taking the city of Bakhmut at a huge cost: 20,000 soldiers killed and a further 80,000 wounded, according to the United States.
Meanwhile, expectation is high for a Ukrainian counter-attack, utilising new western weapons and freshly-trained troops.
But, as the toll of the war builds, does Ukraine have the means to take on Russia in an all-out offensive? And what would it mean for Ukraine if its counter-attack were to fail?
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Military analyst Phillips P O’Brien is professor of strategic studies at the University of Saint Andrews. He is a regular contributor to Atlantic Magazine, and he writes about the war in Ukraine on Substack.
Recently returned from Kyiv, for In the News he explores when the Ukrainian offensive might begin and its chances of success.
He argues that Russia is playing into Ukraine’s hands in its determination to take strategically-unimportant Bakhmut for political reasons, and in its unwillingness to go on the defensive as the momentum of the war shifts once more.
He also explains how a Ukrainian fear that battlefield failure will bring Western support to an end means their timing and approach will be cautious and carefully planned.
Presented by Bernice Harrison. Produced by Declan Conlon.
