The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has been “suckered too often by Boris Johnson” and will watch the Northern Ireland protocol Bill “like hawks” to ensure it isn’t watered down, according to a leading academic.
However, Jon Tonge, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool, said he expected the DUP to return to the Assembly after the summer recess, while “holding out” to form an executive.
“They’re not going to play the Executive card early, whereas they’ll come under pressure to at least form an Assembly. There will be the issue of MLA salaries being reduced, which will be huge.
“This is not 1998-1999, where most Assembly members had other jobs because people didn’t expect an Assembly to be formed. Now it’s the livelihood of the vast bulk of MLAs. They need the money.
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“In terms of the Bill, it’s a negotiating ploy above all else. Looking at from a DUP prism, it would be madness to rush back in to the Stormont institutions. Where would the UK government’s incentive be to railroad the Bill through if they’ve already got the DUP back into powersharing?”
What happens to the Northern Ireland protocol now?
Controversial Tory government legislation to unilaterally override parts of the post-Brexit trade deal received its first formal reading on Monday.
DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson has insisted there is no timetable for his party returning to Stormont as “there’s a long way to go with this legislation”.
But he added the Bill had the “potential to provide a solution”.
The North is without a functioning Assembly after the DUP refused to elect a speaker in its protest over the protocol, the part of the Brexit withdrawal agreement that avoided a hard border on the island of Ireland by placing a customs and regulatory border in the Irish Sea.
Huge gamble
Sinn Féin deputy leader and first minister-designate Michelle O’Neill has accused the DUP of “holding society to ransom” by effectively collapsing Stormont and warned that the new legislation would cost jobs in the North.
Sources close to the DUP say there is “no doubt” powersharing will be restored if the Bill’s passage is accelerated.
“The DUP feel the unionist community are largely with them and will not go back until it’s passed. The crisis will come in October when the secretary of state will have to intervene and possibly call another election. That would be a huge gamble for them.”
Westminster legislation drawn up earlier this year to prevent future collapses of Stormont allows the Assembly to continue without an executive for six months.
Prof Tonge said it would be “madness” for the party to go into another election as there is “no guarantee it would improve its performance” after losing to Sinn Féin in last month’s Assembly polls.
[ Newton Emerson: DUP has a way out and it should take itOpens in new window ]
Instead, they will “stay out” of the executive while being “cautious” of the UK prime minister — whom DUP MP Sammy Wilson last week accused of breaking promises over the protocol.
“What the DUP will do is watch the passage of the Bill like hawks — make sure there’s no watering-down,” Prof Tonge said. “The reason it was introduced as a maximum ‘smashing the protocol’ type Bill ― which it is — was in the full knowledge it will be watered down during its passage anyway.
“So the DUP will stay out and see what happens. The summer recess is almost upon us, and I expect a staged return via the Assembly first and then the executive. That’s really where they’re at.
“The DUP have been suckered too often by Boris Johnson. This time, belatedly, the DUP is much more wary and cautious. Added to that is the electoral pressures. There’s no electoral incentives for the DUP to go back in.
“Nationalists and Alliance may be frothing at the mouth about the DUP staying out, but that won’t do the DUP any harm.”
