Politics

Sinn Féin could take more than 30% of vote in Northern Ireland, poll suggests

Poll comes amid speculation that a fresh election may be called if the Assembly cannot be restored

Michelle O'Neill: has been unable to assume her position as first minister despite Sinn Féin topping the poll for the first time in last May's Stormont Assembly election. Photograph: Liam McBurney/PA
Michelle O'Neill: has been unable to assume her position as first minister despite Sinn Féin topping the poll for the first time in last May's Stormont Assembly election. Photograph: Liam McBurney/PA
Mon Jul 25 2022 - 14:31

Sinn Féin could secure more than 30 per cent of the popular vote in Northern Ireland, a new opinion poll has suggested.

The party emerged top of the poll for the first time in the Stormont Assembly election in May with 27 seats, ahead of next closest rivals the DUP on 25 seats.

The results of the latest Institute of Irish Studies-University of Liverpool/The Irish News poll indicate the party could receive more than 30 per cent of the popular vote for the first time.

It comes amid speculation that a fresh election may be called if the Assembly cannot be restored.

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The Stormont institutions have been in flux since February when the DUP withdrew its first minister from the devolved executive, calling for the UK government to act on the Northern Ireland Protocol.

If a new powersharing administration is not in place within six months of the election, the UK Government assumes a legal responsibility to call a fresh poll within the following three months.

In May, Sinn Féin secured 29 per cent of first preference votes. The latest poll gives the party a share of 30.9 per cent.

Support for the DUP has dipped from 21.3 per cent in May to 20.1 per cent, according to the survey.

However, support for the centre-ground Alliance Party is also growing, the opinion poll has indicated, up from 13.5% in May to 15.3%.

Of the smaller parties, the poll suggests a small increase from 9% to 10% for the SDLP, a drop from 11.2% to 9.6% for the UUP and a significant slide for the TUV from 7.6% to 4.7%.

Meanwhile, the poll suggests an increase for the Green Party – which lost both its Assembly seats in May – to 2.8%.

Professor Peter Shirlow, of the Institute of Irish Studies, said the results tend to reflect the trends in May’s election.

“The two parties that did best in May, Sinn Féin and Alliance, are still growing in terms of potential support – the former probably growing due to Michelle O’Neill not being appointed first minister and the latter gaining recognition as electable,” he said.

“The lesson from May is that pro-union voters are not simply going to vote to keep the other side out.

“Sections within that community want a leadership for the 21st century that involves socially liberal values, delivery of better public services and more thoughtful ways to resolve the protocol. Sinn Féin have little to do but let unionism divide.”

The poll was conducted between June 28th and July 10th, and with margin of error of 3.1%. - PA