PoliticsAnalysis

Weary voters in Northern Ireland wondering if any deadline can restore devolution

In the North, the lesson of history is that once the Assembly stalls, it takes a long time to restart

DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson, Kate Hoey, and former first minister Arlene Foster outside the UK supreme court in London following a ruling on the lawfulness of the Northern Ireland protocol. Photograph: PA
DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson, Kate Hoey, and former first minister Arlene Foster outside the UK supreme court in London following a ruling on the lawfulness of the Northern Ireland protocol. Photograph: PA
Freya McClements's picture
Freya McClements
Thu Feb 09 2023 - 18:00

Northern Ireland has had plenty of deadlines, but still no devolved government.

On Thursday, that particular can was kicked yet further down the road, with another extension to the period allowed for the formation of the Executive.

Instead of the rolling six-week deadlines which have come and gone since October, this time the parties —or rather, the DUP — have an entire year to get back into government and even longer, potentially until April 11th, 2024, before there must be an election or another extension.

This is no bad thing; nobody in Northern Ireland wants an election, particularly so soon after the last one in May and especially not one that would only reinforce existing positions.

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With this off the table, the theory is that it will allow “time and space” for the protocol negotiations to conclude, a deal to be struck and the DUP to go back into the Executive and Assembly.

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In theory, it sounds straightforward, yet bound up in this further delay is an acknowledgement that all may not be as simple as it seems, as well as a tacit acceptance that the date long regarded as the “real” deadline for restoration of the institutions, the 25th anniversary of the signing of the Belfast Agreement in April, is not going to be met.

There can hardly be a visit by US president Joe Biden to celebrate the success of powersharing if, 25 years on, the institutions are mired in what has all the appearance of another lengthy limbo.

All now depends on the protocol negotiations; the DUP has set its “seven tests” as the benchmark for going back in, but there is little sense these will be met, or that the party is preparing for the compromise which may be needed if it is to go back in.

The DUP has gained rather than lost while outside the Assembly and, with council elections looming in May, it will be alert to the danger from the Traditional Unionist Voice if it leaves itself open to the charge of being weak on the protocol

The DUP is not under pressure; in the most recent LucidTalk polling in January, 25 per cent said they would vote for the DUP as their first preference, almost four per cent up on the 21.3 per cent who did so in the May election.

Electorally, the party has gained rather than lost while outside the Assembly and, with council elections looming in May, it will be alert to the danger from the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) if it leaves itself open to the charge of being weak on the protocol.

In the North, the lesson of history is that once the Assembly stalls, it takes a long time to restart. When it collapsed in 2017, it took three years to reform; as Northern Ireland edges into its second year of political limbo, people are wondering not just when, but if, any deadline can bring back devolution again.