Almost half of all voters are finding it “a lot more difficult to manage financially” because of price increases, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos opinion poll.
Asked by the pollsters about how they were being affected by increases in the cost of living, 48 per cent of respondents said that they were finding it “a lot more difficult”, an increase of four points since last October.
A further 39 per cent said they were finding it “a little more difficult”, while just 13 per cent said they were “not having any difficulties at all”.
But the figures show that the cost-of-living crisis is not deteriorating substantially since last year when the question was first asked in the polling series.
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The proportion of respondents to the polls who are finding it “a lot more difficult” has fluctuated between 44 per cent and 49 per cent in that period in polls taken in April, July and October of last year, and the latest poll.
Younger voters and working-class voters in today’s poll are more likely to say they are finding it “a lot more difficult”, with older voters and better-off voters less likely to be feeling under pressure.
By another measure, voters have become slightly less pessimistic about the economy. Asked if they expect the economic situation to be better or worse in 12 months’ time, a fifth (20 per cent) say they expect things to be better, with 42 per cent saying they expect things to be worse. Just over a third (34 per cent) say they expect the economic situation to be the same.
While this presents a “net worse” figure of 22 points, it represents an improvement from when the question was last asked in July of last year. Then, just 9 per cent expected the situation to improve in 12 months and 70 per cent of people expected things to get worse — a “net worse” figure of 61 per cent.
Previous polls have suggested that the interventions made by the Government in the budget last October had a significant effect on people’s perceptions of the economic situation. It may be that the cost-of-living package announced earlier this week — during the sampling process for the poll — will also have an effect.
Elsewhere, today’s findings on the prospects for former taoiseach Bertie Ahern in a presidential election illustrate what a difficult task it would be for him in such a contest. With just 7 per cent of people saying they would definitely vote for him, and 51 per cent saying they would definitely not vote for him, it is hard to see a route to election.
There is strong suspicion in Fianna Fáil circles that Mr Ahern has no intention of pursuing the presidency but that he is justifiably keen to emphasise his role as a pivotal figure in the Northern Ireland peace process and the achievement of the Belfast Agreement in advance of the 25th anniversary of the accord in April.
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Others do not disagree but suggest that he might have been testing the waters all the same.
The poll shows that many voters — a quarter of all respondents — think of him principally in those terms. But almost as many identify him as the man who led the country right up to the crash, and slightly more (27 per cent) think first of the Mahon tribunal’s investigation into his finances. Just 5 per cent of respondents think principally of his stewardship of the country during the remarkable economic boom of the late 1990s and the first half of the 2000s.
Mr Ahern is all these things: his period leading the country marked its transformation in myriad ways, for better and worse. Such a nuanced understanding, though, would have little place in the bear pit of a presidential election. It is likely that Mr Ahern understands this well.
