While UK prime minister Rishi Sunak works to sell the Windsor Framework agreement to unionist and Conservative Party sceptics, a mirror-image process has been under way in Brussels as the European Commission presents the deal to the governments of member states.
Both Brussels and London have been playing down their concessions, and trumpeting their wins.
A team led by European Commission vice-president Maros Sefcovic represented the EU in the talks, and EU countries did not receive blow-by-blow updates of the details as they were thrashed out, to avoid leaks that could sabotage the prospect of a deal.
It was not until Tuesday morning that the EU’s Working Party on the United Kingdom – the key body that scrutinises whether the commission conducts negotiations according to the mandate given by the member states – met to study the details for the first time. Ten hours later, they were still at it.
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Initial cautious optimism and relief that the Brexit saga could finally be concluded gave way to robust questioning as the complex details were worked through.
The deal has a tough audience in Paris, which has long backed a sterner approach to protect the EU’s single market. Other geographically close states, such as the Dutch, are keen that British businesses do not benefit from unfair competition.
Ireland has applied to the EU to retain funding given under the Brexit adjustment fund, set up to ameliorate the economic impact of the UK’s exit from the EU
Much in the deal, from the drastically reduced checks for “trusted traders” to allowances for plant products once deemed a disease risk, to the greatly expanded list of goods considered low risk, could be seen as lenient.
The EU’s leap of faith has been enabled by the border posts built by the UK government, its sharing of live customs data and labels on products that will read “Not for EU”. Ireland’s ability to conduct rigorous market surveillance to ensure that produce isn’t leaking across the Border will be under scrutiny by fellow EU states.
The so-called Stormont brake creates a potentially volatile political tool through which MLAs can challenge the application of EU law. The commission has insisted that a political commitment by the UK government will suffice to ensure it is used only in limited and extreme circumstances.
But the measure is “complicated and novel and a bit of a surprise”, one diplomat says. “There may be concerns that, if abused, it could throw a big spanner in the works.”
There’s also the question of precedent. Immediately after the details of the Stormont brake became public, the commission faced questions about whether such a system could be granted to other non-EU countries with which it has at time challenging trade relations, notably Switzerland. An EU official stressed that the brake was “exclusively for Northern Ireland”.
A key part of the EU mandate was that the text of the original Northern Ireland protocol could not be reopened or renegotiated, something demanded by the UK government.
In the end, the original text is being amended. But it’s being done so through an existing clause in the protocol that allows for updates in case of unforeseen circumstances. This is the basis of the commission’s insistence it has stuck to its mandate.
“Angels are dancing on heads of pins here,” a diplomat says.
Meanwhile, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Tánaiste Micheál Martin briefed Cabinet members on the Windsor framework in Dublin on Tuesday.
A Government spokesman says the agreement contains a series of “practical and sustainable measures” that the two sides consider necessary to deal with “unforeseen circumstances or deficiencies that have emerged since the start of the protocol”.
The spokesman says the commission and the UK will now proceed with the necessary steps to translate the agreement into an legally binding instrument.
He says the European Union in particular has listened to elected representatives, businesses, civil society and consumers in Northern Ireland. He adds that the initial reaction has been good among a number of sectors, pointing out that Ibec and the IFA have responded positively.
In terms of the next steps domestically, there will be a meeting of the Brexit stakeholder forum in the near future, a technical briefing for Opposition parties, and there will probably be statements before the Oireachtas next week.
Asked about the Stormont brake, the Government spokesman says the most important point is that it is designed to be an emergency mechanism, to be used “only after every other avenue has been exhausted”. He adds that there is also a certain amount of scoping work to be done on this.
Separately, Ireland has applied to the EU to retain funding given under the Brexit adjustment fund, set up to ameliorate the economic impact of the UK’s exit from the EU.
Due to the lower-than-expected impact on trade flows into and out of Ireland, spending under this area has been lower than expected.
Ireland received more than €1 billion under this fund, of which €400 million has been spent. The Government is looking to move the remaining fund over to a recovery and resilience fund, which is used to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels and accelerate climate measures. Ireland was the largest beneficiary of the fund when it was announced.
