The DUP has no mandate from its voters for sacrificing the powersharing institutions in order to scrap the Northern Ireland protocol, according to a new academic study of the North’s voters in last year’s Assembly elections.
The findings of the detailed survey suggest that Protestant voters are opposed to scrapping the Northern Ireland protocol if it means the end of the powersharing institutions.
“Among 2022 Assembly election voters of the DUP, TUV and UUP there was no firm consensus in opposition to the protocol and powersharing,” the study’s authors write. “These parties therefore do not have a strong mandate from their voters to adopt a hardline anti-protocol, anti-powersharing position.”
The survey, which was carried out by academics from Queen’s University in Belfast, also found that when asked to choose between a trade border being between Great Britain and Northern Ireland or between the Republic and Northern Ireland, a clear majority favoured the Great Britain-Northern Ireland option.
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But it is the findings on the protocol and powersharing that have the most immediate political relevance as the DUP considers whether to accept the changes made to the protocol in the Windsor Declaration.
Respondents were asked about their views before the Windsor Declaration and, as such, were making judgments on the “old” Northern Ireland protocol, rather than the amended version. This suggests that unionist voters’ objections may have moved in an even more pro-institutions direction since the changes were agreed.
The findings are part of the Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study 2022. It relies on an in-depth survey of 2,000 voters across Northern Ireland in the immediate aftermath of the election. Academics John Garry and Brendan O’Leary – who also worked on The Irish Times/ARINS North and South series – and Jamie Pow sought to examine the nature of the mandates received by the different parties.
In part of the questionnaire, voters were asked to choose between two options: “The protocol should be scrapped even if it means the end of the Assembly and the Executive” or “the Assembly and the Executive should be maintained even if there are difficulties with the protocol”.
The authors report: “The balance of opinion is very much against scrapping the protocol if it means the end of powersharing.”
This was the case, they found, “among all respondents, strongly among Catholics, and very strongly among Alliance, SDLP and Sinn Féin voters.
“Protestants and UUP voters are also on balance against scrapping the protocol if it means the end of the devolved institutions. While DUP voters are more evenly split, they lean towards keeping powersharing even if there are difficulties with the protocol. Only among TUV voters is there net support for scrapping the protocol even if it means the end of the Assembly and Executive.”
