Sinn Féiners from all 32 counties will meet this weekend in Athlone, in the centre of Ireland, for the party’s ardfheis, amid a fervent belief throughout the organisation and beyond that its day is coming.
The leadership of Northern Ireland’s powersharing administration – assuming we will ever see such a thing again – is already within its grasp. In the Republic, it is set to be the largest party – possibly by some distance – in the Dáil after the next election, which must take place in or before the spring of 2025, and which many expect to see this time next year.
This will not of itself guarantee power; that is not how a parliamentary democracy works. The party must secure a working majority in the Dáil and that will require a Coalition deal. But the sort of result projected by the opinion polls and expected by many observers (veteran pundit Ivan Yates recently predicted 70 Sinn Féin seats) certainly puts the party in pole position to lead the next Government and – perhaps – makes that outcome inevitable.
There are political as well as mathematical tipping points. In a splintered political system if one party is much bigger than all the rest, and within touching distance of a majority, it would exercise a sort of political gravity on the others, pulling them into its orbit.
Inside Sinn Féin: Who really makes the big decisions in Ireland’s most popular party?
Election 2024 live updates: Economic storm clouds ahead on a chilly day on the election trail
Temperatures plummet on election campaign trail amid blizzard of political promises
Election 2024 manifestos: Use this tool to compare each party’s promises
If Sinn Féin’s vote is larger than Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael combined, its leadership of the next Government is probably assured and the dream of Sinn Féin in power north and south, with Sinn Féin ministers meeting regularly to discuss how to advance the united Ireland agenda, would be realised.
But steady on: they are not there yet. And they know it.
Senior TDs and party figures all say that one of the key messages this weekend will be to guard against complacency. Sinn Féin has been so far ahead in the opinion polls for so long that activists could be forgiven for assuming victory is a foregone conclusion, frontbenchers for contemplating which department they would prefer to lead.
“This is not a done deal,” says the party’s housing spokesman, Eoin Ó Broin. “We’re not assuming anything. We’re not taking anything for granted.”
There is little doubt that the party is now preparing for power
“It’s an exciting time for the party,” says David Cullinane, the health spokesman and TD for Waterford. “But it’s not inevitable that we’re in Government. Obviously we can’t be presumptuous.”
As is the way with Sinn Féin, which maintains levels of discipline of which other parties are envious and suspicious, everyone has apparently identified the dangers of complacency at the same time. Either that or the leadership has decided this is the line, and everyone follows. If the party does make it to Government, it will find that this level of message consistency and discipline is a lot harder to maintain.
And there is little doubt that the party is now preparing for power. It will seek to project itself this weekend as a Government-in-waiting. It has been doing this for some time now – witness how often the party’s representatives talk about what they would do in Government. “A Sinn Féin Government would ...”
That process has involved a gradual movement to the centre, away from some of the more radical policies and promises that once peppered the party’s manifestos and policy papers. This is evident across economic and taxation policy, across criminal justice policy – where the party has dropped its pledge to abolish the Special Criminal Court, the court that so enthusiastically jailed militant republicans during the years of the IRA’s armed campaign – and across all areas of domestic policy.
[ Parties big and small being squeezed by Sinn Féin juggernautOpens in new window ]
But it is also evident in foreign policy, newly prominent because of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Earlier this year, the party reversed its long-held pledges to withdraw from the EU common defence arrangement known as Pesco and from Nato’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) project. On this quite abrupt change, the list of motions for the ardfheis contains not a peep.
At that time, a senior party figure told The Irish Times: “It’s not about throwing long-held policies out the window – it’s about what’s achievable.”
Of course, it is exactly about throwing long-held policies out the window, either because the party now views them as not achievable or because the political price of sticking with them is too high. Pesco is a case in point; also the Special Criminal Court.
But for all the carefully choreographed moves towards the political centre, Sinn Féin is also definitively different from the two main centre parties rivalling it to lead the next Government.
In his Irish Times column last weekend, Cliff Taylor outlined just how different and how much more redistributive the party’s tax policies would be if implemented in Government, with higher earners paying significantly more tax, to the benefit of lower earners.
There’s two purposes to this weekend – one to rally the troops in advance of next year’s elections, the second to speak directly to people at home
On foreign policy, Sinn Féin’s desire to expel the Israeli ambassador and impose sanctions against Israel would put it at odds with the rest of the EU.
This weekend the Palestinian ambassador is expected to address the ardfheis. If she does so, you may be sure she will be greeted with a lengthy standing ovation. There will be the usual nods to the Basque Country, the Catalans and other “movements of national liberation”. No more than the “sniper at work” T-shirts, you wouldn’t get it at the Fine Gael ardfheis.
But at the same time, the essential message that Mary Lou McDonald will have to sell is not about exotic foreign policy positions, or even the ever-present imperative of achieving a united Ireland – it will be about housing, healthcare and the cost-of-living. About how Sinn Féin is on the side of ordinary people and will make their lives better. About how Sinn Féin will change the things people don’t like – but won’t change the things they like. That is a delicate tightrope to walk, for sure.
Like all party conferences there’s two purposes to this weekend – one to rally the troops in advance of next year’s elections, the second to speak directly to people at home. Get ready for power – but don’t take it for granted. Get ready for change – but not too much change. And whatever you do, stay on message.
