During the course of his bombshell announcement, Leo Varadkar acknowledged that the speculation about where he will end up will be almost as fevered as why he resigned.
“I have nothing else lined up. I have nothing in mind. I have no definite personal or political plans, but I’m really looking forward to having the time to think about them,” he told reporters in the courtyard of Government Buildings.
That, of course, does nothing to dampen the speculation – and there are no shortage of paths open to him. “He’ll be more successful outside Fine Gael than in it,” opined one Government source on Wednesday afternoon.
One route is Europe, where two paths were sketched out by observers. He could seek to be made Ireland’s next European commissioner later this year – however, that position is Fianna Fáil’s to fill and Varadkar appeared to rule it out on Wednesday.
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The other route is through one of the many European posts that will open up after the EU Parliament elections this year. As a former two-time head of government in a member state, his stock is high. He also has a record of relative political stability to point to on his own patch – while Ireland has undergone an upheaval in its politics, it has not been as dramatic or as fractious as in many other member states – at least not yet, anyway.
While the bailout and austerity eras presaged two damaging elections for Fine Gael, in Europe Ireland was seen as a country that stuck with its programme and bounced back. Varadkar’s governments have tacked towards the mainstream on corporate tax, traditionally a black mark for Ireland, and he has been supportive of conversations about greater co-operation on defence. His central role in the Brexit drama also burnished his reputation in Brussels. Insiders also believe the characteristics of European politics as distinct from domestic matters will appeal to Varadkar, who colleagues perceive as always having enjoyed the garlanded nature of high office more than the slog and scrutiny of day-to-day politics. “He doesn’t like the chicken dinners in Manorhamilton on a Friday night at 10pm, and that’s what politics is,” said one Coalition source.
The presidency of the European Council has been mentioned – but against his track record, there is also the stark political fact that by April 6th, he will be a Government backbencher. “If he wanted a big international job his political capital for gaining such a position has evaporated with his resignation,” says one veteran observer.
Why did Leo Varadkar choose this moment to go?
Another option is the private sector, where Varadkar would have his pick of a wide variety of roles, with some speculation that he could land in a globe-trotting, major league public affairs job like that held by former UK deputy prime minister Nick Clegg with Meta. Certainly he is well got in those boardrooms.
Well down the pecking order in terms of options, in the eyes of several sources on Wednesday, was a return to medicine or a life on the backbenches – the latter he didn’t rule out.
Varadkar once famously said he would be done with politics by 50. It seems he may have cleared that with five years to spare – but what comes next will doubtlessly be closely watched. As for now, all he would say to reporters was: “I have no CVs printed”.
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