Earlier this year, after being pushed on Sinn Féin’s polling “slump” during a media outing on the Leinster House plinth, one member of the party’s front bench quipped to journalists afterwards that it was still a “slump to first (place)”. Well, on the evidence of today’s Irish Times poll, even that comfort is no longer available. It is hard to escape the five-point drop for the main opposition party as the main talking point. Equally striking is that today’s poll has the party neck-and-neck with Fine Gael. As Pat Leahy writes in his analysis today, in February, the gap between the pair was nine points. A year prior to that it was 18. The party is now staring at a two-year polling decline as it faces into the first election since its thumping 2020 result – the first chance to road test all its strategies since then. The stakes could not be higher for a party which aims for nothing less than a fundamental reordering of politics on the island.
For Sinn Féin, the party will now tell itself it must hold its nerve. The energy from its change message has ebbed, but not collapsed, it will say. Perhaps the electorate is less ready to believe an optimistic narrative that new blood will solve chronic problems, but the party is still as likely as any other to lead the next government. A weak local and European campaign in 2019 presaged nothing less than a storming general election in 2020. All this is true, but if polls marry to outcomes in June, and if the trajectory continues, it will be very difficult to maintain the same singularity of purpose, mission discipline and swagger that the party has enjoyed since 2020.
For Fine Gael, the poll is a welcome fillip – its strongest since Simon Harris was elected, with voters not so far demonstrating a boundless enthusiasm for the new man. It will encourage him to press ahead with his “back to basics” approach on migration, business, law and order and other policies. Expect to see more of this sort of thing, as Harry McGee reports.
While this Government and this Dáil has done the vast majority of the things it will do before the next election, the polls indicate something is shifting in the electorate – it is telling the political class that nothing about its mood should be taken for granted. That underlying volatility is making it harder than ever to predict the composition of the next Dáil.
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Best reads
- The full poll results (so far – more tomorrow, including a closer look at European constituencies)
- Pollster Damien Loscher writes that the tide may now be turning for the Government as Sinn Féin support weakens across all demographics
- And here’s a note on the methodology
- Polling aside, Marie O’Halloran has a round up of the parliamentary day on Wednesday.
- Miriam Lord brings troubling news of our lack of a supercomputer
- The day after a report into intimidation and threats in political life, Jennifer Bray has the story of a Green Party councillor attacked while postering
- Cormac McQuinn writes of the threats experienced by Paschal Donohoe.
- All this comes, of course, against the backdrop of an assassination attempt on the leader of government in Slovakia, an EU member state
- Newton Emerson writes about how Northern Ireland could become a “sanctuary city” for asylum seekers across Europe
- The latest from Conor Gallagher’s investigation into the finances of the Kinahan drugs cartel
- Inside Politics podcast: Is the ‘disinformation’ label used to stifle free speech?
Playbook
The Tánaiste opens the last day of the sitting week with oral Parliamentary Questions at 9am, followed by Eamon Ryan at 10.30am, before Leaders’ Questions at midday and Questions on Policy or Legislation before lunch.
Legislation relating to nursing homes takes up Government time in the afternoon, before topical issues at 4.30pm. Before the Dáil finishes for the week, a Bill addressing neighbour disputes arising from vegetation causing a nuisance will be debated. Mighty.
The Dáil adjourns at 6.33pm. Here’s the full schedule.
Seanad commencement matters are at 9.30am, with human trafficking laws being debated at second stage later in the morning. The full schedule is here.
At the committees, the Public Accounts Committee holds its weekly meeting at 9.30am reviewing education matters – including school transport, building programmes and the disposal of assets by religious orders.
The committee on Public Petitions meets after lunch. The full schedule can be found here.
Beyond Leinster House, the Taoiseach is out at an unholy hour (8am) with Diageo for an investment announcement. Micheál Martin will launch Fianna Fáil’s local election campaign at 2.30pm, alongside director of elections Jack Chambers.
An Taoiseach is at a gig at Philip Harris’s (no relation. Probably.) farm in Co Kildare alongside Martin Heydon to talk about Fine Gael’s plan for a “new partnership” with farmers.
Helen McEntee and Kieran O’Donnell are out opening An Spidéal Garda station in Co Galway.
People Before Profit will be launching their local and European election campaign in Dublin on Thursday morning.
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