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Big parties set to win seats in each of three European Parliament constituencies, poll finds

Backing for anti-migration candidates scattered among too many hopefuls to secure a seat, according to poll data

Poll
Late swings of support can be expected in the European Parliament election campaign. Illustration: Paul Scott
Pat Leahy
Sat May 18 2024 - 06:00

Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin look set to win seats in each of the three European Parliament constituencies, with the two largest Coalition parties challenging for two seats in Midlands-North-West, according to Irish Times/Ipsos B&A polling.

Far-right and anti-migration candidates will require a dramatic change in voter sentiment if they are to challenge for seats, with support scattered among several candidates in the three constituencies.

With European elections often throwing up surprises and an electorate which has become increasingly volatile, late swings of support in the election campaign can be expected. But for now, the data suggest that whatever support there is for anti-migration candidates, it is scattered among too many candidates to give any of them sufficient momentum to challenge for a seat. Many anti-migrant or far-right candidates are attracting just 1 or 2 per cent support, with many showing at less than 1 per cent, the polls show.

Fianna Fáil’s Barry Andrews in Dublin is in a strong position on 18 per cent, followed by Lynn Boylan of Sinn Féin on 15 per cent. In Ireland South, Fine Gael’s Seán Kelly is on course to top the poll on 23 per cent, followed by Fianna Fáil’s Billy Kelleher on 18 per cent.

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Independent Luke Ming Flanagan leads the field in Midlands-North-West on 11 per cent, but is followed by two candidates each from Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. Barry Cowen of Fianna Fáil is on 10 per cent and his party colleague Lisa Chambers is on 9 per cent. Maria Walsh of Fine Gael is on 10 per cent and her running mate Nina Carberry is on 9 per cent. Michelle Gildernew of Sinn Féin is polling at 8 per cent, while Independent Ireland’s Ciarán Mullooly is on 7 per cent.

The two outgoing Green Party seats, in Dublin and Ireland South, will be under pressure though Ciarán Cuffe has a fighting chance in Dublin.

Mick Wallace in Ireland South and Clare Daly in Dublin, Independent MEPs who have been highly critical of the European Union’s approach to many issues, look to be under pressure. Ms Daly is on 6 per cent, though she will have a better prospect of success if she can attract left-wing transfers. The picture is gloomier for Mr Wallace, who is on 3 per cent.

The former Deliveroo cyclist who rescued a child during a knife attack in Dublin last year, Caio Benicio, is running for Fianna Fáil in the local elections.

The poll also asked voting intention for the local elections, which also take place on June 7th. The figures show further weakness in the Sinn Féin numbers compared to its recent general election support.

When those unlikely to vote and undecided are excluded, the state of the parties for the local elections is as follows: Fine Gael 21 per cent; Fianna Fáil 20 per cent; and Sinn Féin 18 per cent. Among the smaller parties, the figures are: Labour 6 per cent; the Green Party 5 per cent; Social Democrats 3 per cent; People Before Profit-Solidarity 2 per cent, Aontú 1 per cent. Independents and other parties are at 23 per cent.

Undecided votes — who are excluded from the above figures — are at 21 per cent.

An overwhelming majority of voters — 83 per cent — said that people should not be allowed to protest outside the homes of politicians.

The poll was conducted among a representative sample of adults aged 18 years and upwards across 150 sampling points throughout all constituencies. Personal in-home interviewing took place between May 11th and 15th, 2024. The total number of interviews conducted was 1,500. The sample size for this poll is larger than typical for Irish Times/Ipsos B&A polls to accommodate 500 interviews in each of the European Parliament constituencies. In the European election findings, the accuracy level is estimated to be approximately plus or minus 4.4 per cent. For the national findings on the local elections, the accuracy is estimated at plus or minus 2.5 per cent.

Pat Leahy

Pat Leahy

Pat Leahy is Political Editor of The Irish Times