The conventional wisdom on the battle for Dublin’s four European Parliament seats would see Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and Fine Gael take one each with a fight to the death between left-wing candidates for the final seat.
But with a volatile electorate and 23 candidates, including high-profile mavericks, nothing seems certain in a constituency that could throw up surprises.
There is fierce competition on the left.
Sinn Féin’s Senator Lynn Boylan is widely expected to take a seat given her party’s support in Dublin.
Labour Party TD Aodhán Ó Ríordáin performed well in The Irish Times poll with support levels at 10 per cent, two points ahead of incumbent Green Party MEP Ciarán Cuffe.
Ó Riordáin cautions that the poll was a few weeks ago and “people can change their minds” but he is confident he can win a seat.
Should he stay ahead of candidates such as Cuffe and Sinéad Gibney of the Social Democrats he should benefit from transfers.
Cuffe, who was elected as part of the “Green wave” in 2019, admits he is in the fight for the last seat in the constituency.
“There is a different mood compared to 2019, but look, climate action is still crucial,” he says.
Gibney says people “vote left and transfer left” and she predicts “a lot of movement in the early stages of the count”. She believes she has “a good shot”.
Aside from the centre-left candidates, Independents 4 Change MEP Clare Daly faces a threat to her chances of re-election in the form of another prominent left-winger, People Before Profit TD Bríd Smith.
Controversial for parliamentary contributions viewed by some as favourable to Russia, Daly insists she has been a voice for peace and against the militarisation of Europe. She highlighted her repeated condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Daly and Smith were both on 6 per cent in the most recent Irish Times/Ipsos B & poll which was carried out in mid-May.
Daly says it is a “congested field” and her job is to retain her seat.
“It would be great if Bríd could join me but I’m not sure the numbers are there for that,” she said.
Smith says there is a lot of recognition among people she meets on the doors for her record of activism in areas like the anti-apartheid campaign and the war in Gaza.
“I would love to see myself and Clare both giving each other a leg up and getting in,” she said.
Fianna Fáil’s Barry Andrews led in The Irish Times poll on 18 per cent ahead of Boylan on 15 per cent and Fine Gael’s Senator Regina Doherty on 12 per cent.
Andrews said he is “allergic” to polls having been in a similar position in 2019 when he “barely got the last seat”.
Doherty, meanwhile, said she feels pressure to retain a seat that Fine Gael has held since the 1970s – most recently by outgoing MEP Frances Fitzgerald.
She admits concern that her own poll numbers in the capital are below those of Fine Gael overall and she said she needs the party’s traditional supporters to turn out.
One unknown quantity is Independent Ireland candidate and radio “shock jock” Niall Boylan who has taken a hard line on immigration.
During a RTÉ radio debate Boylan said there is a “duty to protect our citizens and protect our borders” and suggested there are “nefarious people who may want to come into our country”.
He rejected accusations that he was dog-whistling and equating immigration with crime.
He denies being “far right”, saying that he has “liberal views on many things”.
Candidates reported that housing followed by immigration and transport are the issues most frequently raised on the doors and local or national issues tend to dominate rather than those of Europe-wide relevance.
Indeed The Irish Times caught up with Doherty on the campaign trail in Ranelagh where two residents brought up concerns over plans to change traffic management in the suburb. One raised climate change, a more pan-European issue.
Many of the candidates have experienced instances where they’ve been verbally abused on the campaign trail – for the most part over immigration.
Candidates and prediction
Prediction: Lynn Boylan (SF), Barry Andrews (FF), Regina Doherty (FG), Aodhán Ó Riordáin (Lab)
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