Sitting Fine Gael MEP Seán Kelly last night retained his seat in Ireland South when he polled an impressive 122,776 votes to take the first seat on the first count with Fianna Fáil’s Billy Kelleher poised to take the second seat with 91,074.
Mr Kelly had a surplus of more than 8,000 over the 114,761 quota, and the next step for Ireland South returning officer Martin Harvey and his 250 staff at the count centre at Nemo Rangers GAA clubhouse in Cork will be the distribution of Mr Kelly’s surplus on Tuesday.
However, Mr Kelly’s surplus will not be enough to see Mr Kelleher elected, and it will take the elimination of some of the lower-placed candidates and the distribution of their transfers to get Mr Kelleher above the quota even though he improved on his 2019 vote by over 7,000 votes.
The next three seats in the constituency that includes the six counties of Munster and Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford and Wicklow promises to be a real dogfight between five candidates including outgoing MEPs, Independent Mick Wallace and Grace O’Sullivan of the Green Party.
Sinn Féin plans to move Northern Ireland remit out of DFA in government
The Irish Times view on what voters think: volatility is now baked in
Half of voters decided on party or candidate in final week of local and European campaigns - study
Unlike Biden, Varadkar could read a room. The question for the next election is can Sinn Féin?
Clare Independent TD Michael McNamara was leading the pack on 56,339 followed Fianna Fáil’s Cynthia Ní Mhurchú on 55,209, Mr Wallace on 52,803, Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion on 50,580 and Ms O’Sullivan on 47,661 first preferences.
Fine Gael’s second candidate, John Mullins, looks to be out of contention on 33,281, while others in the field such as Derek Blighe of Ireland First polled 25,071, ahead of Sinn Féin’s second candidate, Paul Gavan, on 22,392; Labour’s Niamh Hourigan on 21,272; Independent, Eddie Punch on 20,751; and Susan Doyle of the Social Democrats on 20,229.
Also critical in the final allocation of seats will be where the 14,124 votes of Aontú’s Patrick Murphy go as well as more than 42,000 votes distributed between the remaining lower-placed candidates, including Cian Prendeville of People Before Profit/Solidarity.
The strong showing of Ms Ní Mhurchú surprised many observers and appears to have put in her contention for one of the last three seats. That would top an already impressive performance by Fianna Fáil in the local elections.
According to a number of observers, transfers may not necessarily follow along party lines as many voters appeared to be plumping for Mr Kelly No 1 and Mr Kelleher No 2 or vice versa while many of Mr Blighe’s votes were showing No 2 for Mr Kelleher.
Parties will be watching closely to see whether voters are voting along geographic or ideological lines and whether votes for left-leaning candidates will stay left or perhaps break on a geographic basis to candidates from the same part of the constituency.
While both Mr Wallace and Ms O’Sullivan are well down on their 2019 performances where Mr Wallace polled 81,741 votes and Ms O’Sullivan polled 75,964 votes, both remain in contention as does Mr McNamara and Ms Funchion in addition to Ms Ní Mhurchú.
- Sign up for push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone
- Join The Irish Times on WhatsApp and stay up to date
- Listen to our Inside Politics podcast for the best political chat and analysis
